There’s nothing like a matchup between in-state rivals to tip off the college basketball season, which should make Tuesday’s opener between Florida and Florida State must-see TV.
The Gators must replace key contributors in Chris Chiozza and Egor Koulechov, but with a returning nucleus that features Jalen Hudson and the nation’s No. 19 recruiting class, Mike White has plenty to work with.
As for the Seminoles, they enter the season ranked in the top 20 after making a run to the Elite Eight.
However, Florida State will be without top returning scorer Phil Cofer (12.8 ppg) in this one as he recovers from a right foot injury.
Let’s run through what to watch for entering this great matchup.
Game Detail
- Florida at No. 17 Florida State
- Location: Donald L. Tucker Center – Tallahassee, FL
- Game Date: Nov. 6
- Game Time: 9 p.m. EST
- Watch: ESPN2
Players to Watch
Jalen Hudson (Florida)
Hudson chose to come back for another season in Gainesville after withdrawing from the NBA draft back in June.
There’s no doubt that the 6-6 senior is one of the top scorers in the SEC after posting 15.5 points per game last season. He shot 45.5 percent from the floor while knocking down 40.4 percent of his 3-point attempts, and he’ll get an opportunity to eclipse those numbers this year.
But what will Hudson will also be looking to do during his final season in Gainesville is improve his consistency on the defensive side of the court, and the Gators could certainly use a big effort in that facet of the game against a strong opponent like Florida State.
Andrew Nembhard (Florida)
The 5-star freshman is clearly the top point guard option on this Florida team, so it’s essential that he finds a rhythm right off the bat.
Nembhard had four points and four assists in 27 minutes against Florida Southern last week, and his elite passing ability will be one of his biggest strengths this season.
It’s unlikely that Nembhard will be required to contribute 15 points a night, but if he can run the offense in an effective manner and create chaos off the dribble, he should have a stellar first season for the Gators.
Terance Mann (Florida State)
With Cofer out of action indefinitely, Mann will be the top option for this strong Florida State squad.
He averaged 12.6 points and 5.4 rebounds per game last season while shooting a wildly efficient 56.8 percent from the floor.
Mann’s versatility will continue to be a huge strength for Leonard Hamilton and company, as the senior can do so many things well on both sides of the court.
After getting so close to a Final Four appearance, it seems likely that Mann will be on a mission this year in Tallahassee.
Trent Forrest (Florida State)
Guard play will be important in this particular game, so the Seminoles will need their junior point guard to produce an effective performance.
Forrest filled the stat sheet last season in averaging 7.9 points, 4.9 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 1.6 steals while playing 25.6 minutes per game.
One of the biggest question marks surrounding Florida this season is its physicality and aggressiveness, and Forrest could take advantage of that right away by attacking the rim from the opening tip.
If he’s able to consistently get into the lane, it will open up a plethora of options for the Seminoles.
Key Stats
With Chiozza no longer running the Florida backcourt, the Gators’ turnover rate will be worth watching.
The team finished sixth nationally last season in turnovers per game, committing just 9.8 per contest. Nembhard and KeVaughn Allen will likely be the primary ball handlers for the Gator this year, so that combination shouldn’t cause too much of a drop-off in that category.
It’s also worth noting that both teams finished in the top 35 in defensive efficiency last season – Florida at No. 24 and Florida State at No. 33.
Game Outlook
- Spread: Florida State -4
- Over/Under: 150 1/2
- KenPom Projection: Florida State, 65 percent chance to win
- ESPN BPI Projection: Florida State, 60.9 percent chance to win
Cofer is obviously a big part of Florida State’s plans entering the season, and his absence changes the dynamics of this game a little bit.
Still, it’s not as though the cupboard is bare. Mann will likely be the most impactful player on the court, and there are key reserves that should expand their roles.
This should be a close game the entire way, and for the Gators to pull off the win, they’ll have to be the aggressor on both sides of the court and not just rely on perimeter shooting to carry them.
The projections favor the Seminoles likely due to the home-court advantage, but there’s no doubt that Florida is more than capable of grabbing the win.
This is essentially a toss-up, so the edge goes to the home team.
Game Pick: Florida State
For more SEC basketball coverage, follow me on Twitter @theblakelovell.