Frank Martin will lead South Carolina into the Mohegan Sun Arena on Saturday afternoon to square off with Providence in the Air Force Reserve Basketball Hall of Fame Tip-Off.
The Gamecocks have gotten off to a 2-1 start, with wins over USC-Upstate and Norfolk State, and their lone loss came at the hands of Stony Brook.
The Friars also have started 2-1, with wins coming against Siena and Holy Cross while losing to Wichita State.
Let’s take a look at what to watch for in this Big East/SEC showdown.
Game Details
- South Carolina (2-1) vs. Providence (2-1)
- Location: Mohegan Sun Area – Uncasville, CT
- Game Date: Nov. 17
- Game Time: 2:30 p.m. EST
- Watch: ESPN3
Players to Watch
A.J. Lawson (South Carolina)
Coming into this season, the Gamecocks were expected to rely mostly on their veteran leaders since their 2018 recruiting class ranked 10thin the SEC and included five 3-star players.
However, their top recruit in that class has played like anything other than a 3-star player.
Lawson has jumped out to a fast start in leading the Gamecocks this season with 16.7 points and 5.0 assists per game. His play has certainly been welcomed to Columbia, as the team was looking for an increased scoring punch from their backcourt players.
Lawson has certainly exceeded expectations on both ends of the floor early for South Carolina, but it will be interesting to see if he can match that level of production as the season moves on. If he can, the Gamecocks could be a darkhorse NCAA Tournament team if all of the cards fall right.
Alpha Diallo (Providence)
Diallo has been dynamic this season for the Friars, averaging a double-double so far with 20.3 points and 10.3 rebounds per game as a junior.
He is off to a torrid start shooting the basketball, shooting 52.6 percent from behind the arc in the first three games. While it’s hard to see Diallo maintaining that level of production, especially due to his history shooting the ball in his first two seasons (24.3 percent and 21.4 percent), he is still a dynamic scoring threat that has shown to be improved from deeper ranges.
Combine Diallo with freshman A.J. Reeves, who is off to his own impressive scoring start (17.7 point per game), and the Friars have a dynamic backcourt that can challenge many teams around the country.
Key Stats
The battle behind the arc will be very crucial to the outcome of this game.
Providence is a top-40 team from 3-point land, while South Carolina struggles to defend the deep ball (276th nationally).
On the other side of the coin, South Carolina struggles to shoot from the perimeter, but Providence is in the bottom ten in 3-point shot defense.
Whichever team can be more efficient from behind the arc has a great chance to win this game, as it will be a slugfest on the low block to get good looks.
Game Outlook
- Spread: Providence -1.5
- Over/Under: 142.5
- KenPom Projection: South Carolina, 51 percent chance to win
- ESPN BPI Projection: South Carolina, 50.3 percent chance to win
If you look at the projections for this game, it’s obvious that this is a virtual toss-up.
Both teams have had their fair share of offensive struggles, whether it’s been finding shooting consistency or limiting turnovers.
The biggest statistical weakness for Providence has been defending the outside shot, but that may not matter all that much against a South Carolina team that missed all 18 of its 3-point attempts in the season opener against Norfolk State.
Yes, the Gameocks have bounced back with two decent shooting outings against Stony Brook and Norfolk State, but this is still far from a great perimeter shooting squad.
We know both teams are going to play physical, if it turns into a free-throw shooting contest, it’s worth noting that neither have been particularly good in that area. South Carolina is shooting 65.5 percent (225th nationally) while Providence is at 56.9 percent (325th nationally).
Still, the Friars have played a tougher schedule to this point, so they may be a bit more tested heading into this type of game in a neutral-court setting.
Game Prediction: Providence 68, South Carolina 66