No. 8 Auburn will try to hand No. 1 Duke its first loss of the season when the two teams meet in the Maui Invitational semifinals on Tuesday night.
The Tigers held on for an 88-79 overtime victory over Xavier in the quarterfinals, with Bruce Pearl’s team hitting double-digits in 3-pointers made for already the third time this season.
Meanwhile, the Blue Devils cruised to a 90-64 win over San Diego State and have now won their first four games by at least 22 points.
Let’s run through what to watch for in this highly entertaining matchup.
Game Details
- No. 8 Auburn (4-0) vs. No. 1 Duke (4-0)
- Location: Lahaina Civic Center – Lahaina, HI (Maui Invitational)
- Game Date: Nov. 20
- Game Time: 8 p.m. EST
- Watch: ESPN
Players to Watch
Jared Harper (Auburn)
The 5-11 junior delivered a ridiculous dunk in traffic against the Musketeers, but it was his overall play down the stretch that was even more impressive.
https://twitter.com/BBallSociety_/status/1064637879555682306
Harper finished with 25 points, eight assists, and six rebounds while playing 43 minutes in the overtime thriller.
His ability to make huge plays in key moments is one of his strengths, and he will undoubtedly be ready for the challenge of going against Duke’s talented freshman group.
Bryce Brown (Auburn)
Outscoring the Blue Devils won’t be easy for anyone this season, but Auburn’s chances can go up tremendously if both Harper and Brown are at their best on both offense and defense.
The 6-3 senior led the way with 26 points against Xavier and upped his 3-point tally to 15 on the season while shooting 37.5 percent from long range thus far.
It seems likely that Brown will put up 10-plus shots from beyond the arc in this particular matchup, so if he gets off to a great start, he has a chance to put together a memorable performance against the nation’s top team.
Zion Williamson (Duke)
Anyone that has seen Williamson play this season understands the unique physical abilities that he possesses and that aggressiveness will need to be on display once again.
The 6-7 freshman scored 13 points in only 18 minutes against San Diego State, and he already has three games of 21 or more points this year.
Auburn has a plethora of frontcourt players that can challenge Williamson at the rim, so his ability to attack and draw fouls will be crucial to Duke’s success.
RJ Barrett (Duke)
Barrett has scored at least 20 points in every game this season, and he continues to find multiple ways of scoring.
He’s averaging 24.0 points, 4.8 assists, and 4.5 rebounds while playing 29.0 minutes per contest.
Stopping Duke’s three freshmen is going to be difficult to do, and Barrett’s superb scoring ability will make him a huge asset in a high-scoring game like this one.
Key Stats
Duke ranks fourth nationally in points per game (98.7 ppg) while Auburn ranks eighth (97.3 ppg), so it’s easy to understand why this may be a game that’s filled with entertainment value.
If the Tigers want to score the win, they will likely need to keep being aggressive on the offensive glass.
Pearl’s team is fifth in the country in offensive rebounding percentage (43.1 percent), and they’ve had 19 or more in three of their four games this season.
One number that may stand out for Auburn on the defensive side is in 3-point field-goal defense, with the Tigers ranking 244th in that category. However, when you consider that teams have had to chuck up perimeter shots to keep up, that may be a little misleading.
As for a few other areas worth watching, Duke has the clear size advantage in this game (eighth nationally in average height), but Auburn is way more experienced (37th nationally).
Game Outlook
- Spread: Duke -10.5
- Over/Under: 162.5
- KenPom Projection: Duke, 69 percent chance to win
- ESPN BPI Projection: Duke, 58.6 percent chance to win
There have been a lot of people wondering how anyone could beat Mike Krzyzewski’s talented team, and the answer is probably more simple than you think: score more points than they do.
Yes, it’s going to take an explosive offensive team to run past the Blue Devils, and that’s exactly what they’ll be going up against in this game.
Auburn didn’t play its best basketball in the win over Xavier, but if there’s someone that was made for the moment of getting his team ready to slay a giant, it’s Pearl.
He’s the ultimate motivator, and considering that this is one of the biggest games in Auburn basketball history, he should have his team ready to play.
There are three keys to success for the Tigers in this one: drawing fouls, picking up second-chance opportunities, and playing consistent defense.
Williamson and fellow freshman Cam Reddish both got in foul trouble in the first half against San Diego State, yet Duke still led by 17 at halftime. That’s certainly impressive, but that same type of advantage likely wouldn’t be there in a similar scenario against a top-10 team like Auburn.
And the focus on defense and rebounding is rather obvious. The Blue Devils have insane athleticism, and they can find multiple ways to score baskets on any given possession.
You just can’t have long stretches of inconsistent defense against a team that’s this skilled offensively, so Auburn must fully commit on that side of the court and not allow extra looks via the offensive glass.
With all that in mind, picking this game may be a little more difficult than the casual fan might think.
Pearl and his team thrive on these types of situations. It’s a challenging opponent that no one thinks can be beaten, and that is something that the Tigers will feed off of heading into this showdown.
But man is Duke talented. It didn’t feel like this group was entirely crisp in round one, yet they still beat a quality San Diego State team by 26 points.
Auburn’s ability to score points in a hurry will play a big role, and if Pearl’s squad can start fast from the beyond the arc, it will certainly bring about some intriguing possibilities.
Shooting 36.7 percent in the first half may have worked against Xavier, but it won’t do the trick here as there’s very little room for error.
Either way, this is must-watch TV, as there’s going to be an enormous amount of talent on the floor.
However, it’s just hard to pick against Duke in this spot.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 40-9
Game Prediction: Duke 92, Auburn 83
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