No. 19 LSU will try to stay unbeaten when it takes on No. 14 Florida State in the semifinals of the AdvoCare Invitational on Friday afternoon.
The Tigers opened up the tournament with a 67-55 victory over Charleston, with Will Wade’s squad producing 18 assists on 27 made field goals.
As for the Seminoles, they’ve moved to 4-0 on the year with an 81-63 win over UAB.
Let’s run through what to watch for in this top 25 showdown.
Game Details
- No. 19 LSU (5-0) vs. No. 14 Florida State (4-0)
- Location: HP Field House – Kissimmee, FL (AdvoCare Invitational)
- Game Date: Nov. 23
- Game Time: 4:30 p.m. EST
- Watch: ESPN2
Players to Watch
Tremont Waters (LSU)
Everything this LSU team does this season will run through the 5-11 sophomore, who continues to be one of the most impactful points guards in college basketball.
Waters tied a career-high with 11 assists against Charleston, and he’s now averaging 7.2 assists per game on the season.
In a matchup like this one against a tough Florida State defense, Waters is going to be a huge asset for Wade and company due to his decision making and ability to make everyone around him better.
Terance Mann (Florida State)
With Phil Cofer still sidelined due to injury, Mann has unsurprisingly been the go-to option for the Leonard Hamilton’s squad.
The 6-7 senior is averaging 14.8 points and 6.3 rebounds in 29.3 minutes per game while shooting 58.3 percent from the field and 81.3 percent from the free-throw line.
Slowing down Mann will be a top priority for LSU, as he’s been excellent to start the season.
Key Stats
Florida State’s efficiency continues to be among the nation’s best, with the Seminoles ranking 12th nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
But LSU hasn’t been too far behind on the offensive side of the court, as the Tigers rank 19th in the category while ranking 31st nationally in scoring offense (87.5 points per game).
LSU is shooting 62.1 percent from 2-point range (seventh nationally) but hasn’t been great from 3-point land in making just 29.8 percent of its shots (274th nationally).
From a statistical standpoint, there are a couple of areas that each team can exploit.
Florida State is shooting 40.5 percent from 3-point range (34th nationally), and that could be a concern for an LSU squad that’s allowing opponents to shoot 37.7 percent from beyond the arc (279th nationally).
On the flip side, the Tigers are forcing 16.2 turnovers per game (77th nationally), and they’ll be going up against a Florida State team that is struggling in that area at the moment with 15.0 turnovers per contest (252nd nationally) while committing at least 14 in every game this season.
But when it comes to size and experience, the Seminoles have the advantage in both categories in ranking 18th in average height and 112th in experience.
Game Outlook
- Spread: Florida State -5
- Over/Under: 151
- KenPom Projection: Florida State, 72 percent chance to win
- ESPN BPI Projection: Florida State, 72 percent chance to win
It may sound simple enough, but the team that can best limit turnovers will have a good shot at winning this game.
Florida State has actually been more effective at forcing turnovers (38th nationally), but LSU hasn’t had a ton of turnover problems due to the ball typically being the in the hands of Waters.
What’s been most impressive about the Tigers has been their poise under pressure, as three of their past four games have been decided by nine points or less.
Despite relying on a lot of underclassmen, LSU has played like a veteran team in close games, which is an encouraging sign when you consider that this will likely go down to the wire.
Both teams are very balanced on the offensive side of the court, and they each feature playmakers that can take over a game at any time.
Like most neutral-court matchups between top 25 teams, this thing could go either way.
LSU’s ability to force turnovers against a Florida State team that’s been sloppy in that area is intriguing since turning defense into offense would be a recipe for success.
However, it’s difficult to pick against the Seminoles in this spot as their experience and tough-minded defense may be enough to frustrate the Tigers.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 52-10
Game Prediction: Florida State 72, LSU 71
For more SEC basketball coverage, follow me on Twitter @theblakelovell.