Ole Miss will look to pick up its third-straight win when it takes on Cincinnati in the Emerald Coast Classic championship game on Saturday night.
The Rebels earned the 78-70 win over Baylor in first round action, as Kermit Davis’ team jumped out to an 18-5 lead and never looked back.
Meanwhile, the Bearcats rolled to a 71-55 victory over George Mason.
Let’s run through what to watch for in this matchup.
Game Details
- Ole Miss (3-1) vs. Cincinnati (4-1)
- Location: The Arena at NW Florida State – Niceville, FL (Emerald Coast Classic)
- Game Date: Nov. 24
- Game Time: 7 p.m. EST
- Watch: CBS Sports Network
Players to Watch
Breein Tyree (Ole Miss)
The 6-2 junior was excellent against Baylor in posting a career-high 28 points in 33 minutes of action.
Tyree went 6 of 11 from the floor in the game, but he made an even bigger impact at the free-throw line where he knocked down 13 of his 17 attempts.
Ole Miss continues to get valuable production from its versatile group of guards, and if Tyree and fellow guard Terence Davis can keep playing at a high level, this team could exceed expectations in the SEC this season.
Jarron Cumberland (Cincinnati)
After the departure of Jacob Evans and Gary Clark, we knew that Cumberland was going to be the player that the Bearcats leaned on most this season.
The 6-5 junior is off to a fine start in averaging 16.8 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 2.6 assists to go along with 1.6 steals in 27.2 minutes per contest.
Cumberland has also made the most of his attempts from beyond the arc, as he’s 12 of 27 for 44.4 percent through five games.
Key Stats
Cincinnati’s defensive abilities have been well-documented throughout the years, with Mick Cronin leading the team to a top 25 ranking in defensive efficiency in each of the past eight seasons.
The Bearcats currently rank 23rd this year, and they’ve held every opponent to 64 points or less.
Something else Cincinnati is doing well is attacking the offensive glass, as it ranks 12th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage (40.5 percent) and 49th nationally with 13.5 offensive rebounds per game.
Those areas have allowed Cincinnati to earn 63.3 percent of its points from 2-point range, which ranks third in the country.
Where the Rebels could find an advantage is on the perimeter, where the Bearcats are allowing opponents to shoot 36.9 percent from long range (266th nationally) while making just 27.8 percent of their own 3-point attempts (311th nationally).
Game Outlook
- Spread: Cincinnati -3
- Over/Under: 136.5
- KenPom Projection: Cincinnati, 60 percent chance to win
- ESPN BPI Projection: Cincinnati 72.2 percent chance to win
Style of play will be very important for both teams in this particular matchup.
Cincinnati excels in forcing opponents to play in the half court while Ole Miss wants to get out and attack in transition if possible.
The Rebels will need to play disciplined on offense to be able to break through the physical and aggressive defense of the Bearcats, because committing a lot of turnovers isn’t a path to victory against this type of opponent.
But again, Cincinnati has proved to be vulnerable on the perimeter, and that will give players like Tyree and Davis an opportunity to swing the game in the Rebels’ favor.
This figures to be a slugfest the entire way, as it doesn’t feel like there’s a whole lot that separates these two teams.
Cincinnati’s defense should be able to cause just enough frustration to the Ole Miss guards to make things difficult, so I’ll take the Bearcats to capture the narrow victory.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 58-12
Game Prediction: Cincinnati 68, Ole Miss 64
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