Mississippi State will try to pick up its sixth win of the season when it travels to take on Dayton on Friday night.
The Bulldogs have rebounded from their loss to Arizona State with back-to-back wins over Saint Mary’s and Alcorn State.
Meanwhile, Dayton is trying to snap a two-game losing streak after suffering defeats to Virginia and Oklahoma at the Battle 4 Atlantis.
Let’s run through what to watch for in this matchup.
Game Details
- Dayton (4-2) vs. No. 25 Mississippi State (5-1)
- Location: University of Dayton Arena – Dayton, OH
- Game Date: Nov. 30
- Game Time: 7 p.m. EST
- Watch: CBS Sports Network
Players to Watch
Quinndary Weatherspoon (Mississippi State)
Weatherspoon has unsurprisingly gotten off to a great start this season in averaging a team-high 17.0 points to go along with 3.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 2.2 steals per game.
He’s someone that Ben Howland will need to rely on in road tests such as this one, so Weatherspoon should be at his best in this matchup.
Jalen Crutcher (Dayton)
Crutcher is the leader on the court for the Flyers, and it’s showing in his performances through six games thus far.
The 6-1 sophomore is averaging 13.5 points and 5.7 assists while playing 34.5 minutes per contest, and he will undoubtedly be a huge part of Anthony Grant’s plans as the season progresses.
Key Stats
Mississippi State ranks in the top 40 in both offensive and defensive efficiency right now, but it is still struggling to find a rhythm from 3-point range.
The Bulldogs are shooting just 29.3 percent from beyond the arc (294th nationally), and while that needs to improve going into SEC play, it may not matter a ton in this game since the Flyers are only shooting 30.2 percent (280th nationally) in that area.
However, what Mississippi State is doing well is capitalizing on its shots inside the perimeter.
Howland’s squad is eighth nationally in free-throw shooting (79.7 percent) and 16th nationally in 2-point percentage (58.6 percent).
It’s also worth noting that both teams rank in the top 30 in terms of 2-point scoring, as Dayton gets 59.5 percent of its points from there while Mississippi State gets 58.2 percent of its points from that mark.
Game Outlook
- Spread: Mississippi State -3.5
- Over/Under: 135.5
- KenPom Projection: Mississippi State, 61 percent chance to win
- ESPN BPI Projection: Dayton, 50.1 percent chance to win
Mississippi State lost 12 games last season, and 10 of those came in either road or neutral-court contests.
Improving in that area is going to be essential to this team’s shot at contending for an SEC title this year, and things weren’t entirely pretty in the two games in Las Vegas last week.
Dayton was tested in the Bahamas, and that may pay off against another high-quality opponent.
The Flyers only lost this game by two in Starkville last season, so this feels like another one that will go to the wire.
I’m worried that Mississippi State may rely too much on perimeter shots in this one, so I’ll go with the slight upset and take Grant’s team to earn the victory.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 69-15
Game Prediction: Dayton 65, Mississippi State 63
For more SEC basketball coverage, follow me on Twitter @theblakelovell.