It’s another SEC basketball Saturday, and this is easily the best set of matchups that we’ve seen thus far this season.
Eight teams are set for action, with top 25 squads in Auburn, Kentucky, and Mississippi State all looking to continue their winning ways.
Let’s get to the picks.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 84-18
South Carolina (4-4) at No. 5 Michigan (9-0) – Noon EST, Fox Sports 1
The Gamecocks’ tough season continued earlier in the week when they lost 73-64 to a Wyoming team that entered the game at 2-6 on the year.
That wasn’t an ideal performance heading into a showdown with the No. 5 team in the country, especially when you consider how excellent Michigan has been on the defensive side of the court.
The Wolverines have held eight of their nine opponents to 61 points or less, with North Carolina being the lone team that’s surpassed that mark in an 84-67 loss in Ann Arbor.
South Carolina has not been good on offense, and it’s hard to see Frank Martin’s team finding any sort of rhythm against a team like Michigan.
Prediction: Michigan 75, South Carolina 55
No. 10 Michigan State (7-2) at Florida (5-3) – Noon EST, CBS
Florida’s win over West Virginia was far from pretty, but it was still a major confidence-booster for a team that’s had trouble finding an identity through the first month of the season.
The Gators showed great toughness in being able to grind out in a win in that type of game, and they’ll need that same approach against a top 10 team in Michigan State.
As for the Spartans, it’s been business as usual in scoring some really good wins while losing a couple of close games to Kansas and Louisville.
The biggest question going into this game involves Florida’s ability to find enough steady offense to keep up with the Spartans. Michigan State features several reliable double-digit scoring threats in Joshua Langford, Cassius Winston, and Nick Ward, and the Gators will need consistent production from their entire rotation to keep up.
I tend to think that Florida will play well enough defensively to make this close, but I still worry about things on the offensive side of the court.
Prediction: Michigan State 73, Florida 68
No. 9 Kentucky (7-1) vs. Seton Hall (5-3) – Noon EST, FOX (Madison Square Garden)
The Wildcats have won seven straight now and are seemingly starting to put some things together on both sides of the court.
But playing a Kevin Willard-coached team is never easily, and Kentucky will need to showcase a lot of toughness from start to finish in order to avoid the upset.
One area where the Wildcats may receive a little bit of a break is in defending the 3-point shot, as it’s been a notable flaw for John Calipari’s squad this season (330th nationally in allowing 39.7 percent).
Seton Hall is shooting just 29.7 percent from long range (290th nationally), so that removes an element that has given teams an advantage against Kentucky throughout the season.
However, turnovers will be worth watching. Seton Hall is 13th nationally with only 10.3 turnovers per contest, while Kentucky is 278th nationally with 15.3 per game. If the Pirates can be aggressive and force the Wildcats’ young guards into making mistakes, it will make things very interesting.
But Kentucky still feels like the better pick.
Prediction: Kentucky 83, Seton Hall 73
Western Kentucky (4-4) at Arkansas (6-1) – 3:30 p.m. EST, SEC Network
Arkansas has been one of the surprise teams in the SEC this season in winning seven straight following the opening week loss to Texas.
Daniel Gafford has been the star of the show, but it’s been the play of guards Isaiah Joe and Mason Jones that has given the Hogs a major lift.
As for the Hilltoppers, they have the talent to win a lot of games this season, but they’re struggling to get consistent production beyond their top four players.
Western Kentucky has an effective field-goal percentage of 48.6 percent this season (228th nationally) while shooting just 46.8 percent from 2-point range (258th nationally), and those trends are concerning against an Arkansas team that has been on a roll offensively as of late.
It wouldn’t be all this shocking if this one is a bit closer than expected, but the Hogs have proven to be more reliable at this point.
Prediction: Arkansas 85, Western Kentucky 79
No. 22 Mississippi State (7-1) vs. Clemson (6-2) – 4 p.m. EST, ESPN2
Neither team was particularly impressive in its last outing, as Mississippi State has some early problems with a 2-6 McNeese State team while Clemson snuck by Saint Peter’s by five.
But this is still a matchup between two teams with high aspirations. Mississippi State is loaded with size and athleticism across the board, and Clemson is one of the more experienced teams in the country (35th nationally in experience).
It’s tough to get a great read on what we’ll get from these two in a neutral court environment after the aforementioned struggles earlier in the week.
However, I was really impressed with Mississippi State’s road win at Dayton last week, and it makes me believe that Ben Howland’s group is prepared to turn the corner in terms of being a serious SEC contender this season.
When you combine that with the fact that Clemson’s leading scorer Marquise Reed is not expected to play, that makes this a more confident pick.
I’ll take the Bulldogs in what should still be a pretty good game even with Reed sidelined.
Prediction: Mississippi State 71, Clemson 69
Boston College (6-2) at Texas A&M (3-4) – 6 p.m. EST, SEC Network
12/8 Update: This game has officially been cancelled.
? SCHEDULE ALERT ?
Tonight's game against Boston College has been cancelled.
? https://t.co/NlvVA15qEt#GigEm pic.twitter.com/y4CX11Hh2s
— Texas A&M Basketball (@aggiembk) December 8, 2018
After enduring a tough four-game losing streak against quality competition, the Aggies have won two in a row and desperately need to rack up more wins before league play arrives.
They’ll look for another against the Eagles, who are coming off a tough 100-95 overtime loss to Providence earlier in the week.
It’s hard to know what we’re going to get from either team in this spot, and if you’re wanting a 3-point shooting exhibition, it would be best to look elsewhere. Boston College is shooting just 30.4 percent from beyond the arc (264th nationally), but Texas A&M has been significantly worse at 25.0 percent (344th nationally).
In a game where both teams feel somewhat similar, the key difference is that the Eagles feature a game-changing player in Ky Bowman who can take over in a hurry.
We haven’t seen that same sort of element on a consistent basis from the Aggies, so I’ll lean towards Boston College to earn the road victory here.
Prediction: Boston College 75, Texas A&M 74
Ole Miss (5-2) at Illinois State (6-4) – 8 p.m. EST, ESPN+
The Rebels continue to make progress in Kermit Davis’ first year on the job, and recent wins over San Diego and Louisiana Monroe have showcased the versatility of this current roster.
Meanwhile, Illinois State is coming off back-to-back losses to San Diego State and UIC, with Dan Muller’s group struggling to find consistency in the non-conference slate.
What stands out most from a statistical standpoint is Ole Miss’ potential ability to find easy buckets inside the perimeter. The Rebels are shooting 57.0 percent from 2-point range this season, and that could be a problem for an Illinois State squad that’s allowing opponents to make 55.6 percent of those shots (295th nationally).
But the Redbirds are one of the most experienced teams in the nation, and they figure to pose a big challenge even despite some issues early on.
However, we’ve already seen the Rebels showcase plenty of grit in a road loss at Butler earlier in the year, and that characteristic should be crucial in picking up the victory.
Prediction: Ole Miss 82, Illinois State 80
Dayton (5-3) at No. 8 Auburn (7-1) – 8:30 p.m. EST, SEC Network
Things continue to roll right along for the Tigers, as they’re fresh off of games where they held both Saint Peter’s and UNC Asheville to under 50 points.
It may be tough to do the same to a talented Dayton squad, but it’s clear that Auburn’s defense has been just important as its offense in running out to a 7-1 start on the season.
As for this particular matchup, the keys to success for the Flyers are pretty simple. Bruce Pearl’s team continues to dominate the offensive glass (fifth nationally with 15.9 offensive boards per game) while wreaking enough havoc defensively to sport the nation’s top turnover percentage defense (29.0 percent).
Another potential problem for the visitors in this matchup is Auburn’s ability to affect shots in the lane, and that could make it hard for the Flyers to continue their impressive 58.5 percent mark from 2-point range (11th nationally).
Dayton is much improved from a season ago, but there’s just no reason to pick against the Tigers at home at this point.
Prediction: Auburn 81, Dayton 62
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