The SEC has started to hit a hot streak in non-conference play, and that was a much-needed development after somewhat of a slow start.
There are four conference teams in action on Tuesday night, and they should have an opportunity to keep the momentum going.
Let’s get to the picks.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 100-24
Xavier at Missouri – 7 p.m. EST, ESPNU
The Tigers are riding a three-game winning streak, and they’re starting to look way more in sync than they did early in the season.
This matchup will be all about stopping Xavier’s efficiency on offense, as Travis Steele’s team ranks as the nation’s best 2-point shooting tea at 60.3 percent while sitting at 21st in effective field-goal percentage (56.2 percent) and 31st in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Where Missouri may be able to take advantage is on the perimeter, with the Tigers shooting 39.0 percent from long range (31st nationally). On the flip side, Xavier is allowing opponents to shoot 37.6 percent from beyond the arc (298th nationally).
It’s still hard to completely trust Missouri on the offensive side of the court, and that may be the same for Xavier after it notched just 47 points in a recent loss to Cincinnati.
But I’m gonna lean towards the Musketeers to grind out the close win here.
Prediction: Xavier 64, Missouri 62
Oakland at Georgia – 7 p.m. EST, SEC Network+
Georgia had every opportunity to pull out the win against Arizona State last weekend, but it’s clear that Tom Crean’s team is still a work in progress.
This is a much more favorable matchup, with Oakland ranking near the bottom in numerous defensive categories this season. The Bears are 331st nationally in 3-point defense (39.7 percent), 342nd nationally in 2-point defense (58.6 percent), and 344th nationally in effective field-goal percentage defense (58.9 percent).
Of course, this is also a team that is shooting the ball well from beyond the arc (ninth nationally at 40.9 percent) while doing a good job of taking care of the ball (34th nationally with 16.2 percent turnover percentage).
Georgia should be able to use its size to exploit a lot of the defensive weaknesses, which should lead to plenty of extra looks on the offensive glass.
The Bulldogs are the better pick in this spot.
Prediction: Georgia 85, Oakland 74
Alabama vs. Liberty – 8 p.m. EST, SEC Network+ (Huntsville, AL)
Even with Missouri/Xavier on the schedule, this could wind up being the best game of the evening in the SEC.
Liberty continues to play an efficient style on both sides of the court, with Ritchie McKay’s team ranking seventh nationally in effective field-goal percentage (57.4 percent). And while Alabama has had huge scoring stretches, there are still moments where the Crimson Tide struggle to find consistency on offense.
Some of those same issues could pop up in this one, as the Flames boast the Pack Line defense that McKay is familiar with from his days as an assistant at Virginia. That will force Alabama to have a very focused approach on offense because things just won’t come easy against this defense.
What may also help Liberty here is that it has already played road games against Vanderbilt and Georgetown, which were both matchups where the Flames lost by 10 points or less.
Alabama’s best chance at securing the win will be by owning the boards and not allowing Liberty to force bad shots.
I feel like this is the type of matchup that will give the Tide fits on both sides of the court, so seeing the Flames pull off the upset wouldn’t be surprising at all.
Still, I’ll go with Alabama to pick up the win in what should be a thriller.
Prediction: Alabama 69, Liberty 68
Mercer at Florida – 8 p.m. EST, SEC Network
The Gators have had 10 days to work out the issues from the Michigan State loss, which once again were primarily on the offensive side of the court.
Luckily, Mike White’s squad will go up against a Mercer team that has had their own struggles in that area. The Bears are turning the ball over at a high rate (302nd nationally with a 21.8 percent turnover percentage) while shooting just 27.8 percent from 3-point land (327th nationally).
Considering how good Florida has been on defense (sixth nationally in defensive efficiency), that could be a problem for the visitors.
This should be a statement game for the Gators, so I’ll take them to score the big victory.
Prediction: Florida 77, Mercer 58
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