With SEC play only two weeks away, teams around the league are trying to add more resume-boosting wins to their NCAA Tournament profile.
And with a loaded Saturday slate, there will be plenty of opportunities for SEC teams to do just that.
Let’s get to the picks.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 111-26
Wake Forest at No. 3 Tennessee – Noon EST, ESPN2
Wake Forest lacks experience (319th nationally), doesn’t force many turnovers (325th nationally in forcing opponents into 11.3 turnovers per game), and struggles from inside the arc (242nd nationally in 2-point field-goal percentage at 48.0 percent).
Those are not ideal numbers going up against a Tennessee team that is efficient offensively while making things very difficult on opponents on defense.
Prediction: Tennessee 81, Wake Forest 61
Georgia at Georgia Tech – Noon EST, ESPNU
This game looks a lot more interesting now that Georgia Tech pulled off an upset at Arkansas, and perhaps the Yellow Jackets will be able to build off that here.
While Josh Pastner’s group is still looking for a rhythm offensively, they rank ninth in effective field-goal percentage defense (42.7 percent) and 15th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (15th nationally).
It’s hard to trust a Georgia Tech team that lost at home to Garner-Webb earlier in the week (before winning at a tough place like Arkansas), but consistency away from Stegeman Coliseum hasn’t been a strong suit for Georgia.
Prediction: Georgia Tech 68, Georgia 65
Clemson at South Carolina – 2 p.m. EST, ESPN2
The Gamecocks are now 4-6 overall and riding a three-game losing streak, with back-to-back games against Michigan and Virginia being one of the toughest two-game stretches in college basketball.
This is Clemson’s first true road game of the season, and even in being the way more experienced team, this just feels like a spot where South Carolina may finally be able to get over the hump.
The Tigers’ biggest strength is ranking third nationally in 2-point field-goal percentage (59.3 percent), but South Carolina has been excellent at shutting down opponents in that area (15th nationally at 42.4 percent).
I’ll take a chance here on the inconsistent Gamecocks.
Prediction: South Carolina 70, Clemson 69
Texas State at Arkansas – 2 p.m. EST, SEC Network
The youth of this Arkansas team has shown over the past several weeks in suffering home losses to Western Kentucky and Georgia Tech, but this feels like a good spot for the Hogs to get back on track.
Even with Texas State riding an eight-game winning streak, the Razorbacks should be able to force enough turnovers to pick up a much-needed home victory.
Prediction: Arkansas 80, Texas State 65
Marshall at Texas A&M – 2 p.m. EST, SEC Network+
We all know the Aggies want to continue to play much faster this season, and they’ll get their chance here against one of the fastest teams in the country.
Marshall ranks sixth nationally in average offensive possession length (14.1 seconds), and both Jon Elmore and CJ Burks can go for huge scoring nights pretty much any time they want.
Texas A&M has been playing much better basketball, and Billy Kennedy’s team should find enough scoring to win, even if it feels like this could be much closer than people think.
Prediction: Texas A&M 83, Marshall 81
Murray State at No. 7 Auburn – 4:30 p.m. EST, SEC Network
It’s unlikely that Auburn commits 25 turnovers like it did against NC State on Wednesday, but this will still be a challenge considering what Murray State star Ja Morant brings to the table.
Morant will be one of the best playmakers that the Tigers have seen all season, and they must be extremely focused on the defensive side of the court.
Auburn hasn’t looked right for a few weeks now, and it can’t afford to a lackluster performance here against a talented Murray State squad.
Bruce Pearl will have his team motivated after the rough performance against the Wolfpack, and that should allow the Tigers to create a lot of turnovers in earning the win.
Prediction: Auburn 83, Murray State 72
Florida vs. Florida Gulf Coast – 5 p.m. EST, Fox Sports 2 (Sunrise, FL)
Florida is still searching for its identity as we get closer to the start of conference play, and there’s no doubt that Mike White wants to see his team put together a complete performance here before hosting Butler next Saturday.
The good news is that this is not the Florida Gulf Coast team of recent years, with the Eagles currently ranking 300th nationally in effective-field goal percentage defense (55.0 percent).
That’s a positive for the Gators, who still have way too many stretches of inefficient offense, despite ranking ninth nationally in defensive efficiency.
Prediction: Florida 77, Florida Gulf Coast 60
No. 19 Kentucky vs. No. 9 North Carolina – 5:15 p.m. EST, CBS (Chicago, IL)
Could this be a game where Kentucky finally turns the corner? Well, it’s going to be easier said than done.
The Tar Heels have simply been excellent on the offensive side of the court (third nationally in offensive efficiency), and that’s going to present some challenges for a Kentucky squad that hasn’t been particularly great defensively for pretty much the entire season.
One positive for the Wildcats is that their weakest point – perimeter defense – may not get exploited all that much since North Carolina scores 54.9 percent of its points from 2-point range (45th nationally).
In a battle of two teams filled with talent, it’s really a matter of choosing which one you trust the most right now, which would be the Tar Heels given what we’ve seen thus far.
Prediction: North Carolina 87, Kentucky 82
Vanderbilt vs. Kansas State – 7 p.m. EST, ESPN2 (Kansas City, MO)
The Commodores have started to figure things out after losing Darius Garland for the season, and the convincing win over Arizona State showed how much talent Bryce Drew still has on the roster.
Meanwhile, Kansas State hasn’t played all that well since the calendar flipped to December, and Dean Wade being out indefinitely due to injury isn’t going to help matters.
The Wildcats are second nationally in defensive efficiency and do an excellent job limiting second-chance opportunities in ranking as the country’s best in allowing opponents to earn just a 19.8 offensive rebounding percentage.
Kansas State’s experience should play a role here, but I’ll take my chances with a Vanderbilt squad that’s probably still being undervalued after the loss of Garland.
And with Wade out of the lineup, the Wildcats have proven to be a different team.
Prediction: Vanderbilt 71, Kansas State 69
Wright State at Mississippi State – 7 p.m. EST, SEC Network
The Bulldogs keep finding ways to win, as they’re now riding a six-game winning streak with just two games left on the non-conference schedule.
And Ben Howland’s group may be able to keep the momentum rolling right along against a Wright State team that ranks 334th nationally in effective field-goal percentage defense (56.9 percent) and 350th nationally in 3-point field-goal defense (43.0 percent).
Mississippi State has shown major improvement in its perimeter shooting this season (28th nationally at 38.9 percent), and with a significant size advantage as well, the Bulldogs feel like the best pick in this spot.
Prediction: Mississippi State 83, Wright State 71
Missouri vs. Illinois – 8 p.m. EST, Big Ten Network (St. Louis, MO)
Cuonzo Martin has his team on quite a hot streak right now, as Missouri was dominant in its 71-56 win over a good Xavier team earlier in the week.
But while Illinois has won just four games to this point, we know that this rivalry game is going to bring out the best in the Illini.
What stands out most from a statistical standpoint is that Missouri is still 246th nationally in turnover percentage (20.3 percent) while Illinois continues to excel in turning teams over (sixth nationally in turnover percentage defense at 24.9 percent).
The Mark Smith factor will be talked about a lot, but the bigger talking point should be just how well Missouri has been playing lately.
I’ll take the Tigers to keep their streak going in what figures to be another entertaining matchup in the series.
Prediction: Missouri 74, Illinois 70
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