We’re officially only a week away from the start of SEC, so teams are looking to build momentum before the grind of conference play begins.
There are a lot of intriguing matchups on the Saturday schedule, with the rivalry game between Kentucky and Louisville being the top attraction.
Let’s get to the picks.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 120-30
BYU at No. 19 Mississippi State – Noon EST, ESPNU
Mississippi State currently ranks 35th nationally in 3-point field goal percentage (38.5 percent), which is a dramatic increase from the 31.5 percent that it shot last season (329th nationally).
BYU shoots it well and does a good job taking care of the ball (seventh nationally in turnover percentage), and those are recipes for success on the road.
But the Bulldogs have been playing very well and should be able to hold off the Cougars in what figures to be a fun game.
Prediction: Mississippi State 84, BYU 75
Tennessee Tech at No. 3 Tennessee – 1 p.m. EST, SEC Network+
Tennessee Tech has just two wins against Division I competition at this point, and the visitors have struggled mightily offensively (329th nationally in offensive efficiency).
Meanwhile, the Vols are eighth in that same category and feature a lot more experience on the roster.
Rick Barnes’ group should keep rolling here.
Prediction: Tennessee 82, Tennessee Tech 53
Tennessee State at Vanderbilt – 1:30 p.m. EST, SEC Network+
The Commodores had one of their worst shooting performances of the season in the loss to Kansas State last week, but they should be able to get back on track in this matchup.
Tennessee State boasts more experience (50th nationally), but Bryce Drew’s squad has a significant size advantage (22nd nationally).
The problem for the Tigers is that they are 331st nationally in offensive efficiency, and their most recent road game was a 99-41 drubbing at the hands of Memphis.
Vanderbilt should be able to take advantage of that and pick up the win.
Prediction: Vanderbilt 81, Tennessee State 63
No. 16 Kentucky at Louisville – 2 p.m. EST, ESPN2
Perhaps the Wildcats turned a corner with the huge win over North Carolina last week, and now they’ll try to show they’re capable of winning a true road game in a hostile environment.
You can pretty much throw the statistics out the window in a rivalry game like this one, but Louisville may be the type of team that can limit Kentucky’s extra looks on the offensive glass.
While the Wildcats are third nationally in offensive rebounding percentage (41.4 percent), the Cardinals have held opponents to just 22.6 percent on the offensive glass (ninth nationally).
Still, I’ll take a chance on the North Carolina victory being the start of the usual march in the right direction for John Calipari’s squad after some early season struggles.
Prediction: Kentucky 78, Louisville 77
Morehead State at Missouri – 2 p.m. EST, SEC Network+
Cuonzo Martin has done an excellent job with this edition of the Tigers, as they’ve reeled off five straight wins due to their focused approach on offense (319th nationally in average offensive possession length at 18.8 seconds).
It has also helped that Missouri has been surprisingly efficient from beyond the arc, shooting 39.8 percent on the season (20th nationally).
Morehead State has played in a lot of close games as of late, but Missouri’s huge advantage inside will likely be the difference.
Prediction: Missouri 75, Morehead State 58
Florida Gulf Coast at Ole Miss – 2 p.m. EST, SEC Network+
The Rebels are much more consistent on defense than they’ve been in recent years, but it’s their high offensive percentages that have helped them pick up a lot of great wins.
Ole Miss is 11th nationally in effective field goal percentage (57.3 percent), and the balance scoring attack should give Kermit Davis’ an opportunity to vastly exceed expectations in SEC play.
Florida Gulf Coast is in rebuild mode right now, so the Rebels’ should be able to score early and often in earning the victory.
Prediction: Ole Miss 88, Florida Gulf Coast 69
Texas Southern at Texas A&M – 3:30 p.m. EST, SEC Network+
Texas Southern already has road wins at Baylor and Oregon this season, but Johnny Jones’ team has only been able to find two non-Division I wins elsewhere in the always brutal non-conference slate.
The Aggies have started to hit their stride, and their success in finding second-chance opportunities on offense (11th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage at 38.1 percent) will come into play against the Tigers, who rank 312th nationally in that category defensively.
That should help Texas A&M secure another win.
Prediction: Texas A&M 82, Texas Southern 68
Butler at Florida – 4 p.m. EST, ESPNU
It’s all about offensive improvement for the Gators, as their defense has been very strong through 11 games (eighth nationally in defensive efficiency).
Butler won the previous matchup between these teams at the Battle 4 Atlantis and did so by giving Florida very few quality looks on offense.
Its really hard to trust the Gators right now due to offensive issues, but I’ll lean on their defense getting enough stops at home to earn a much-needed quality win.
Prediction: Florida 65, Butler 63
North Florida at No. 12 Auburn – 5 p.m. EST, SEC Network+
Auburn hasn’t played its best basketball in recent weeks, but this is the type of matchup that Bruce Pearl’s group should thrive in.
North Florida wants to play fast and shoot a lot of 3-pointers, and given the Tigers’ strengths in that style of game, they should be able to put a lot of points on the board.
The Ospreys have a tendency to turn the ball over (318th nationally in turnover percentage), and that’s not ideal against an Auburn team that ranks as the nation’s best in that category defensively.
Jared Harper and company should take care of business in a big way.
Prediction: Auburn 94, North Florida 70
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