The 2019 NCAA Tournament is officially here, and the SEC is represented well once again with seven teams in the field.
There are four teams in action on Thursday, with a few higher seeds potentially on upset alert against quality mid-major opponents.
If you want full analysis on each region, here are links to podcast episodes for all four:
- NCAA Tournament Midwest Region preview and predictions
- NCAA Tournament West Region preview and predictions
- NCAA Tournament East Region preview and predictions
- NCAA Tournament South Region preview and predictions
Let’s get to the picks.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 230-79
No. 3 LSU vs. No. 14 Yale – 12:40 p.m. EST, truTV
The Tigers’ mindset will determine how far they can go in this tournament, as they certainly have the talent to compete with anyone.
Yale is the more experienced team in this particular matchup, and it also features an offense that ranks 10th nationally in effective field goal percentage.
Of course, LSU’s strength is also on offense, with Tremont Waters and company ranking 10th nationally in offensive efficiency.
The key for the Tigers will be finding second chance opportunities, which is something they’ve excelled at this season with 13.5 offensive rebounds per game (ninth nationally).
This should be a high-scoring affair between two teams that want to push the tempo, and even with the Bulldogs having an NBA talent in Miye Oni leading the way, LSU should be able to grab the win in what could be a close game.
Prediction: LSU 79, Yale 74
No. 5 Auburn vs. No. 12 New Mexico State – 1:30 p.m. EST, TNT
Auburn’s reward for winning the SEC Tournament was an early game far away from home against one of the best mid-majors in the country.
That’s not exactly an ideal setup for the Tigers, as they will prepare to face off with a New Mexico State team that has racked up 30 wins to this point due to its great depth and efficient offensive attack.
The Aggies are ninth nationally in two-point field-goal percentage (56.6 percent), but like Auburn, their main focus is putting up lots of shots from long range as both teams sit in the top 10 nationally in 3-point attempts.
Something else Chris Jans’ team does very well is find extra looks on offense, with New Mexico State ranking 19th nationally in offensive rebounds per game.
The Tigers’ keys to success are pretty much to do what they usually do, and that’s force turnovers and convert that into points while also making this a track meet.
Auburn also has the type of size that could limit second chance opportunities, and that length and athleticism will be just as important when it comes to defending the perimeter.
It’s no secret that the 5/12 matchup is one that produces a lot of upsets, but the Tigers have a lot of momentum after the huge win over Tennessee and should be able to keep that going in this spot.
Prediction: Auburn 80, New Mexico State 72
No. 7 Nevada vs. No. 10 Florida – 6:50 p.m. EST, TNT
The Gators are going to have their hands full in this game, as Nevada may be a little under-seeded at a No. 7 seed based on its excellent play this season.
This will certainly feature a contrast in styles, with Florida hoping to turn this into more of a grind on both sides of the court rather than a free-flowing matchup with lots of transition buckets.
Eric Musselman has a lot of experience on his roster, and it’s a group that has already proven that it’s capable of winning games in March after what they were able to accomplish last season.
The Wolf Pack are obviously the more consistent scoring team since they are 24th nationally in points per game, while Florida is much lower at 282nd nationally due to the difference in how the two teams attack offensively.
From a defensive standpoint, there’s no doubt that the Gators are solid enough on that side of the court to slow down Nevada, especially considering how well they defend the perimeter while being able to force opponents into making a lot of mistakes.
This could very well be one of the best first round matchups of the entire tournament, and quite honestly, both teams are capable of providing a serious challenge in what will likely be a meeting with No. 2 Michigan in the second round.
But even with Florida’s strength on defense, Nevada feels like the better pick.
Prediction: Nevada 71, Florida 69
No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 15 Abilene Christian – 7:10 p.m. EST, CBS
John Calipari announced earlier in the day that P.J. Washington wouldn’t be available for this one due to a sprained foot, but the more concerning part of the equation is that he’s also in a hard cast.
Obviously, not having Washington would be a huge blow to Kentucky’s title chances, and it would put them in a difficult spot from a matchup standpoint against either Wofford or Seton Hall in the second round.
Of course, the Wildcats have to get by Abilene Christian first, and it’s not exactly the easiest matchup given how well the Southland champs shoot from beyond the arc. Joe Golding’s team ranks 19th nationally in 3-point percentage at 38.3 percent, and guarding the perimeter has been a weakness at times for Kentucky throughout the season.
Even with Washington out of the lineup, Calipari’s squad should be able to attack the offensive glass and get to the free throw line early and often.
That should be enough to help Kentucky secure the victory here.
Prediction: Kentucky 77, Abilene Christian 61
For more SEC basketball coverage, follow me on Twitter @theblakelovell.