Note: This story was originally published on Substack.
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Here are some thoughts on SEC basketball and other fun stuff heading into the weekend.
What’s wrong with the SEC?
If you’ve watched a lot of SEC basketball this season, surely you’ve noticed it.
What’s it? The fact that the conference just hasn’t been as impressive as some expected to this point in non-conference play.
Kentucky lost to Evansville. South Carolina lost to Boston University. Missouri lost to Charleston Southern. Texas A&M lost to Fairfield. Alabama lost to Penn. Mississippi State lost to Louisiana Tech (it may be a reach to put this one in here because Eric Konkol’s squad is pretty good).
Some of those losses aren’t terrible, but they aren’t exactly ideal.
The conference was always going to take a step backward this season. Nine of the SEC’s top 10 scorers and eight of the top 10 in minutes played exited from a season ago, leaving many teams with some production to replace.
That’s typically the case each season, but four teams had legit Final Four potential. It has been a while since we’ve been able to say that about the league.
Six SEC teams finished in the top 26 in KenPom last season:
- Kentucky (8)
- Tennessee (10)
- Auburn (11)
- LSU (19)
- Mississippi State (21)
- Florida (26)
Here are the top six teams and their KenPom ranking this season:
- Kentucky (8)
- Auburn (12)
- Tennessee (21)
- Arkansas (28)
- Florida (31)
- LSU (32)
The numbers aren’t all that different. Yes, it’s a much smaller sample size, and KenPom data isn’t perfect this early in the season.
But this was something I pondered on multiple radio shows and podcasts in the preseason: I’m just not sure 1-5 in the SEC will be as strong as it was in 2018-19.
Kentucky and Florida still have a lot of work to do to be national title contenders. Auburn, Tennessee, and LSU have all started well, but we probably need more games to know exactly how they replace some of the best players in program history. Arkansas is undefeated and ranks 10th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, but the Hogs have yet to play a true contender.
Obviously, it’s more about how you finish than how you start. There are teams that will get better, and the league should still have an opportunity to get at least six teams in the tournament.
However, whereas a season ago I felt pretty confident about five teams winning multiple games in March, I’m not there yet with this group. And I’m not sure I’ll get there at all.
Then again, as a wise philosopher says, it is ONLY December.
The best team in the SEC to this point is……
Early on in this new project, I’m fairly certain I have more Alabama subscribers than any other fanbase (love you guys).
So, consider my choice for best SEC team through eight or so games a bad business move.
Spoiler alert: I think it’s Auburn.
Sure, Bruce Pearl’s team had 19 turnovers and went 4 of 25 from 3-point range while needing overtime to beat Furman.
But rallying from a 14-point second-half deficit to beat a quality team tells us what we need to know about the Tigers’ resiliency.
Some will make the argument for Kentucky as the league’s best since the Wildcats are ranked highest in the AP poll (don’t get me started on the AP poll). Some will make the argument for Tennessee, who has the best pair of wins.
I’ll make the argument for Auburn.
Let’s consider what Pearl had to replace. Jared Harper was the best point guard and arguably one of the best on-court leaders in school history. Bryce Brown made more 3-pointers than anyone in school history. Chuma Okeke was a top 20 pick in the NBA Draft.
Yet the same qualities that allowed for a Final Four fun are still on display. The confidence and swagger? Check. Pressure defense? Check. Playmaking guards? Check. Defensive stopper? Check.
The only thing that’s lacking is not having a true sharpshooter like Brown on the court, which could eventually become an issue. For now, the Tigers have made up for it by ranking fourth nationally in 2-point field goal percentage (59.9 percent).
Samir Doughty is offering his own unique skill set that fits perfectly with the players around him. Issac Okoro has been as good as advertised in that he’s a tremendous defender who has proven to be more than that. Austin Wiley is manning the paint. Danjel Purifoy is playing well. J’Von McCormick and Anfernee McLemore offer versatility.
Some are already trying to find comparisons between this team and the Final Four team. It may be fun to do, but the two are different in a lot of ways.
However, there is a common denominator: Winning.
Consider this: The Tigers haven’t lost to a non-national champion team since Feb. 23 of last season. The program just keeps finding ways to win.
If Auburn keeps doing that, the potential is there for another special season.
Looking ahead to the weekend’s games
Stephen F. Austin at Alabama – 8 PM EST, SEC Network+ (Fri.)
The interest in this game escalated pretty quickly.
What’s wrong with Alabama? The Crimson Tide are one of only two SEC teams with a losing record, and injuries and trying to adjust to a new system have both been a factor. So has a brutal schedule.
Which leads us to Stephen F. Austin, a team that needs no introduction. The Lumberjacks pulled off the biggest win of the season at Duke, then followed it up with a convincing victory at Arkansas State.
Here’s what will determine who wins this game: Stephen F. Austin leads the nation in turnovers forced (26.0 per game). That’s five turnovers better than the team in second. Meanwhile, Alabama is 347th with 18.3 turnovers per game. The Tide are playing fast under Nate Oats, so there are understandably more opportunities to turn the ball over.
But the Lumberjacks are relentless with their pressure defense. Kira Lewis and company have to find a way to combat that in order to win this game.
For Alabama fans who want to learn more about Kyle Keller and the program’s incredible journey this season, two podcast suggestions: Jeff Goodman’s interview with him on Good N’ Plenty and our interview with him on Marching to Madness.
Florida at No. 24 Butler – Noon EST, FOX (Sat.)
The Gators are starting to figure it out. Everyone jumped off the bandwagon pretty quickly after the UConn loss, and maybe that was a good thing for Mike White’s team.
Like Kentucky, this is an inexperienced team that’s extremely talented. The offense is behind the defense at this point, but let’s remember that we’re still only eight games into the season for most teams.
Winning at Butler will be a challenge. The Bulldogs have been great on both sides of the court en route to an 8-0 start, and they’re the favorite here.
But this is a game that should tell us a lot more about Florida’s potential as one of those second-weekend NCAA Tournament teams.
CSU Bakersfield at Ole Miss – 2 PM EST, SEC Network+ (Sat.)
The combined record of the opponents the Rebels have played is 47-22. That’s the best combined record for opponents of any team in the SEC.
Ole Miss has scored just 95 total points in the past two games (against quality competition in Oklahoma State and Butler), but should be able to get back on track here.
Of course, the most intriguing storyline is the return of Ole Miss alum and former head coach Rod Barnes, who now coaches at Bakersfield.
Barnes did a lot for the program and should receive a nice ovation.
Fairleigh Dickinson at No. 8 Kentucky – 4 PM EST, SEC Network (Sat.)
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: The Wildcats are young and don’t shoot it particularly well from the perimeter.
However, there’s no reason to overthink things just yet when it comes to Kentucky.
At full strength, this is one of the most talented teams in the country, and John Calipari will have the Wildcats playing their best basketball late in the season. Or at least that’s usually how it works.
They’ll be fine in this one.
Missouri at Temple – 7:30 PM EST, ESPNU (Sat.)
Speaking of bad shooting teams, that’s one of the things that’s holding Missouri back. The Tigers rank 338th nationally in 3-point percentage, and going 4 of 26 from beyond the arc in a 68-60 loss to Charleston Southern wasn’t good.
Missouri’s defense, for the most part, has been good enough. All four of the Tigers’ losses have been by 11 points or less, and they held opponents under 70 points in three of those.
Scoring on a quality defensive team like Temple (16th nationally in effective field goal percentage defense) will be a challenge for Cuonzo Martin’s squad.
But if this team is gonna be an SEC sleeper like I thought it could be, the offense simply has to get better.
Arkansas at Western Kentucky – 7:30 PM EST, CBS Sports Network (Sat.)
After blowing out their first five opponents, the Razorbacks have won three straight games by single digits. The competition has gotten tougher, but finding ways to win close games is a good quality.
Everyone is asking the question: Can Arkansas keep winning with so little size? Eric Musselman’s rotation is primarily made up of players who are 6-6 or shorter.
Well, this is a game where size could matter. Charles Bassey, a 6-11 stud, is nearly averaging a double-double for the Hilltoppers. He can control the paint and completely take over when he needs to.
Arkansas’s guards are among the SEC’s best, but keeping Bassey in check will be a chore.
Houston at South Carolina – Noon EST, ESPNU (Sun.)
We’re doing it again, aren’t we? The Gamecocks haven’t played great and have had some ugly losses, so we’re all gonna assume that means they’ll finish low in the SEC.
You know the joke about what happens when you assume.
Well, Frank Martin keeps making asses out of everyone.
Kelvin Sampson is doing a great job with the Cougars and they’re the better overall team at this stage of the season.
However, Martin will probably work his magic and get the Gamecocks in the top four in the league. You just know he’s gonna make all of us look silly.
Texas A&M vs. Texas – 3 PM EST, ABC (Sun.)
The Aggies aren’t very good right now, folks. Buzz Williams will get them there eventually, but they’re not even close yet.
If you thought Kentucky and Missouri’s shooting woes were bad, Texas A&M is shooting 23.9 percent from long range. That’s 346th nationally.
Texas is a good defensive team, and the Aggies have to find more consistent offense to win games moving forward.
Northwestern State at LSU – 4 PM EST, SEC Network (Sun.)
LSU is fun to watch. The Tigers don’t have Tremont Waters running the show anymore, but Skylar Mays continues to showcase why he’s one of the most underrated players in the league.
Plus, Emmitt Williams is having the breakout season I thought he could. He’s averaging 15.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks per game while shooting 64.9 percent from the floor.
This should be a dominant win for Will Wade’s group, and it’s one that can compete for another SEC title.
Random Thoughts
– I told Auburn fans before the season that I thought Davidson could be a sleeper Final Four team. The Wildcats are 3-5. I’ll never be mistaken for Nostradamus.
– Vanderbilt is off to a 6-2 start in Jerry Stackhouse’s first season, and what’s been most impressive is the toughness from this group. Aaron Nesmith is a star, Saben Lee continues to improve his game, and Scotty Pippen Jr. has a ton of potential. The Commodores will have their struggles, but they clearly aren’t going to back down from anyone.
– Anthony Edwards to the New York Knicks would be fun.
– Three SEC teams currently rank in the top five in 2020 recruiting: Kentucky, Tennessee, and Arkansas. But Muss is only good at getting transfers!
– In the “coaches who will one day be a head coach in the SEC” category: Steve Forbes has East Tennessee State sitting at 8-1, with the lone loss coming in a competitive game at Kansas. The Bucs play at LSU on Dec. 18.
– No, I have not yet watched anything on Disney+. It’s basketball season, guys.
– National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation is the best Christmas movie ever made. Don’t @ me (but subscribers can comment in the section below with their own favorite).
Just for fun
I haven’t covered SEC football regularly since 2016.
I simply watch the games and enjoy them now. It’s pretty cool and much less stressful (shoutout to the SEC football beat writers who work way harder than people give them credit for).
But to get the “Blake, stick to basketball” crowd riled up, my SEC championship game prediction:
LSU 27, Georgia 20.