Note: This story was originally published on Substack.
There are always fewer games during finals week, but there’s a jam-packed slate of SEC basketball this weekend.
With conference play only three weeks away, teams around the league are trying to notch quality wins to boost their NCAA Tournament resumes.
But two important factors continue to play a role in the SEC this season, and they’ve prevented several teams from reaching their potential thus far.
Here are some thoughts on those factors and a look at the upcoming games in the conference.
The SEC’s inexperience
Experience is only one part of the equation in college basketball.
Inexperienced teams can win games. Just ask Kentucky, Duke, North Carolina, and the other teams who consistently win with one-and-done players.
But every season is different. Some inexperienced teams will have intangibles that others don’t, and there’s no real way to know for sure what you’re gonna get from a team that is reshuffling its roster and trying to replace more experienced players from the season prior.
Let’s look at the data on how experienced the SEC is as a whole by looking at KenPom’s experience ranking. You can read more about the formula on his site, but he essentially bases it on a freshman having zero years of experience, a sophomore having one year of experience, and so on.
The most experienced team would be ranked No. 1, while the least experienced team would be ranked No. 353.
Here are the rankings for each SEC team for both this season and last season:
From these rankings, we assume that Kentucky is the least experienced team in the league while Auburn is the most experienced.
What’s the takeaway?
For starters, six teams ranked 256th or lower in experience in 2018-19. This season, there are 10 teams that rank in that range.
That tells us that a lot of teams are playing inexperienced players.
If we look solely at wins and losses, the two most experienced teams – Auburn and Arkansas – have the best records. It doesn’t necessarily mean a great deal since Florida and Kentucky are far from the two worst teams in the conference (and Texas A&M is far from the best as the third most experienced team), but it’s at least worth noting.
So, the SEC’s early struggles shouldn’t be all that surprising since there are a lot of underclassmen on the court. They’re talented young players, but they’re still young. Coaches have to work through some of the growing pains, and that can lead to sloppy performances.
The inexperience is likely playing a factor in another area for the league.
How’s the extended 3-point line affecting SEC teams?
Inexperience isn’t the only thing teams are working through early in the season.
To put it simply, the SEC hasn’t been the greatest shooting conference in America during the 2019-20 campaign.
That’s nothing new. Where the SEC has ranked nationally the past seven seasons in 3-point shooting (out of 32 conferences):
- 2018-19: 34.3 percent (23rd)
- 2017-18: 34.3 percent (28th)
- 2016-17: 34.4 percent (26th)
- 2015-16: 34.7 percent (18th)
- 2014-15: 33.9 percent (25th)
- 2013-14: 33.5 percent (28th)
- 2012-13: 33.4 percent (25th)
However, this season, the numbers are quite glaring.
Here’s each team’s 3-point shooting percentage this season and last season, along with where they rank nationally (out of 353):
The takeaways for this one?
Six teams ranked in the top 100 in 2018-19, while two teams rank there this season. Seven teams ranked worse than 150th in 2018-19, while 11 rank there this season.
And then there’s this: The SEC is shooting 31.2 percent as a conference. It’s a small sample size, but that’s a bit of a drop from the league’s lowest average of the previous seven seasons we used as a comparison (33.4 percent in 2012-13).
It hasn’t been a significant difference for some teams. After all, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State are among the nation’s best.
But with personnel changes and the 3-point line moving back, the SEC is having issues considering that nearly half the league is shooting less than 30 percent while ranking 291st or lower nationally.
Luckily, there is a positive.
The shooting numbers aren’t all bad
The SEC may not be making shots consistently from the perimeter, but they’re making it work elsewhere.
And, again, that’s nothing unusual for a league that has used its length and athleticism to make scoring at the rim a huge priority for many years.
The two-point numbers look a little better than the ones from beyond the arc.
Here’s how it looks for each team:
Now that’s more like it.
Sure, you have to factor in the strength and size of the competition here. Once SEC play gets going, it’s going to be much harder for over half the league to rank in the top 50 in 2-point percentage. It’ll have a similar effect on 3-point shooting – some teams will shoot better from the perimeter, some will shoot worse.
Competition matters. So do things like experience, playing less players in your regular rotation, etc. That’s why you can’t only use numbers from an 8-10 game sample size when gauging a team’s overall potential for the rest of the season.
Even Texas A&M coach Buzz Williams has said that he’ll never allow the numbers to replace his eyes. You shouldn’t either.
But these shooting trends can give you a better idea of possible strengths and weaknesses for certain teams ahead of conference play.
For more great stats, KenPom is your friend.
Looking ahead to the weekend’s games
Mississippi State vs. Kansas State – 11:30 AM EST, ESPNU (Sat.)
After losing to Louisiana Tech, this is an opportunity for Ben Howland’s squad to get a quality win back. The key to victory is quite simple: Don’t turn the ball over. Kansas State is 10th nationally in forcing 19.1 turnovers per game, while Mississippi State ranks 304th in committing 16.0 turnovers per game. Taking care of the ball has clearly been a problem without Nick Weatherspoon on the court, but it’s a priority in this game if the Bulldogs want to get the win.
Tulsa at Arkansas – 1:30 PM EST, ESPNU (Sat.)
How do the Razorbacks respond to their first loss of the season? That’s the big question. Tulsa already has a win at Vanderbilt, and former LSU guard Brandon Rachal has been excellent for Frank Haith’s team in averaging 15.3 points and 7.0 rebounds per game while shooting 56.8 percent from the floor. Arkansas is the better team, and the response should tell us a lot about this team’s mindset moving forward.
Alabama at Penn State – 2 PM EST, Big Ten Network (Sat.)
As I noted on Twitter, the Crimson Tide get back-to-back games against opponents who have beaten top-five teams this season. How fun. The Nittany Lions have a lot of confidence after the win against Maryland, with Penn State forcing 20 turnovers en route to the victory. That’s not ideal for an Alabama team that is averaging 18.5 turnovers per game (347th nationally). Yes, the Tide play an up-tempo style, but that many turnovers on the road against a quality team would not be a recipe for success. Nate Oats’ squad is searching for a signature win on its resume, and this would do the trick.
No. 13 Memphis at No. 19 Tennessee – 3 PM EST, ESPN (Sat.)
This game may not pack the same type of punch without James Wiseman, but it’s still a top 25 matchup. And in case you forgot, these two teams don’t seem to like each other all that much. You can probably throw the stats out the window here. Both teams are really good, and the atmosphere should be electric. For the Vols to win, they need Yves Pons and John Fulkerson to continue to play as they have through the first eight games this season.
Middle Tennessee at Ole Miss – 3 PM EST, SEC Network (Sat.)
We go from one big coaching storyline to another for the Rebels. After welcoming in former Ole Miss head coach Rod Barnes, now Kermit Davis will lead his current team against his old team for the second time since making the move to Oxford. Middle Tennessee is still struggling to find its way without Davis, as the Blue Raiders rank 254th in offensive efficiency and 257th in defensive efficiency. The Rebels should take care of business.
No. 12 Auburn vs. Saint Louis – 4 PM EST, ESPN2 (Sat.)
This one will take place in Birmingham in the annual Mike Slive Invitational. In case you hadn’t heard, I think Auburn is the best team in the SEC right now. But this will game will be far from easy for the Tigers. Saint Louis has been solid on defense (57th nationally in defensive efficiency) and particularly good at defending inside the perimeter (13th nationally in 2-point defense). As we know from the math lesson above, the Tigers rank in the top five in 2-point shooting. And just in case this becomes a free-throw shooting contest: the Billikens are the worst in the nation at 53.5 percent.
Georgia Tech at No. 8 Kentucky – 5 PM EST, ESPN (Sat.)
Georgia Tech has good size and plays well enough on defense to make this a game. Of course, having Jose Alvarado back on the court would’ve been a huge boost for the Yellow Jackets. He was originally supposed to return from injury in this game, but instead, won’t back for a few more weeks. Neither of these teams get their points from the perimeter, and Kentucky should have the advantage inside with Nick Richards and EJ Montgomery both playing pretty well right now.
Georgia at Arizona State – 8 PM EST, Pac-12 Network (Sat.)
If you’re looking for a game where two teams will walk it down the court, you won’t find that here. Georgia is 18th nationally in average offensive possession length (15.2 seconds), and Arizona State is 33rd (15.6 seconds). Roll the ball out there and let’s play, folks. The most intriguing storyline is that this is the Bulldogs’ first true road game this season. This is a team playing a lot of freshmen and sophomores, so it would be impressive if they can find a way to get a win here.
Liberty at Vanderbilt – 8 PM EST, SEC Network+ (Sat.)
Liberty is one of only five unbeaten teams left in college basketball. The Flames are off to an 11-0 start after going 29-7 last season, which included an NCAA Tournament win against Mississippi State. For Vanderbilt to win, it’ll be about finding good shots against the challenging Pack Line defense. The Commodores’ biggest strength has been their 3-point shooting, but Liberty ranks 10th in the nation in holding opponents to 26.0 percent from beyond the arc.
Southern Illinois at Missouri – 4 PM EST, SEC Network (Sun.)
Getting a huge road win at Temple should’ve given the Tigers a nice boost of confidence. As for Southern Illinois, only one of its four wins has come against a team ranked higher than 309th in KenPom. That sets up nicely for Jermiah Tilmon and company. Missouri ranks 29th in defensive efficiency, and that’s going to make it difficult on the Salukis when it comes to finding points. The Tigers should build a little more confidence on offense in this game, and that’s exactly what they need.
South Carolina at Clemson – 5 PM EST ESPN2 (Sun.)
South Carolina is another team that has yet to find a truly great win. The Gamecocks’ best victory to this point is Gardner Webb, which makes these next two games against Clemson and Virginia rather significant. Obviously, beating Clemson may prove to be the more likely of the two. The Tigers have lost three straight games to quality competition and do have a nice win against TCU on their resume. South Carolina just hasn’t been consistent on offense, and that’s problematic in road game against a solid defensive team.
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi at Texas A&M – 6 PM EST, SEC Network+ (Sun.)
I’m confident in saying that Texas A&M is going to win this game one way or the other. I’m also confident in saying that this won’t exactly be a game for those who love great offense. Both teams have struggled to score the ball consistently, and making a ton of 3-pointers is the preferred plan of attack for the Islanders since they’ve actually been pretty good in that area (33rd nationally at 38.1 percent). The Aggies should win, but a hot shooting performance by the visitors could make it interesting.