We are 11 days away from the start of conference play in the SEC, and several teams around the league have opportunities to notch important non-conference wins before we get there.
There are plenty of intriguing matchups on the schedule this week, and it starts with a loaded Tuesday slate.
My non-conference predictions record has turned out better than expected, but as we prepare to enter the unpredictable world of SEC play, that will likely change.
As always, my predictions are based on team analysis and who I think will win. Score projections are for my own amusement.
Let’s get to the picks.
Season Predictions Record: 112-25
South Carolina at Clemson – 7 PM EST, ESPN2 (Game Preview)
The Tigers lack depth, with only five players playing more than 12 minutes per game. That’s an area South Carolina can try to exploit by attacking the basket and letting Chris Silva go to work on the block in order to draw fouls.
Opposing teams have only attempted 135 total free throws against Clemson this season (10th in the nation).
Of course, the problem with that scenario is that the Gamecocks are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country at 65.4 percent (302nd nationally).
South Carolina is coming off a long layoff while Clemson is coming off a thrilling win over Florida.
I don’t have a ton of trust in either team in this spot, so I’ll revert to the home team to score the win in a low-scoring game.
Prediction: Clemson 64, South Carolina 60
Texas A&M-CC at Ole Miss – 7 PM EST, SEC Network
Things are not going well in Oxford, and after three straight overtime losses at home, you have to wonder how it affects this team mentally going forward.
The good news that is Texas A&M-Corpus Christi does not have a win over a Division I team this season, despite three of their six losses coming by seven points or less.
The Islanders struggle to score, and that’ll allow the Rebels to snap the home losing streak.
Prediction: Ole Miss 81, Texas A&M-CC 67
Northern Kentucky at No. 8 Texas A&M – SEC Network+
After Admon Gilder was ruled out for two to three weeks with a torn meniscus, it looks like the Aggies will also be without Robert Williams for a second straight game due to a concussion.
Texas A&M's Robert Williams (concussion) is not expected to play tonight against Northern Kentucky, per Billy Kennedy. Isiah Jasey also out.
— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) December 19, 2017
Does Texas A&M have enough to win this game without those two? Of course. But will it be easy? Probably not.
Despite losing at UMBC this past Sunday, the Norse already have solid wins over East Tennessee State and Iona this season, and three of the team’s four losses are by two points or less (Vermont, Memphis, and UMBC).
Northern Kentucky is the nation’s best team from two (63.2 percent) and rank 36th nationally with 94 steals this season.
I won’t go out on a limb and pick the upset here, but this one may be more interesting than people think.
Prediction: Texas A&M 76, Northern Kentucky 69
Sam Houston State at LSU – 8 PM EST, SEC Network+
I mentioned in Saturday’s predictions column that I had a strange feeling that LSU could lose after the thrilling win over Houston, and sure enough, that’s what happened.
But Stephen F. Austin is a good basketball team, and while the loss will sting a bit, it’s one that the Tigers should be able to bounce back from here.
Sam Houston State is 310th nationally in scoring (67.2 ppg) and field-goal percentage (41.2 percent), but is holding opponents to 62.6 points to per game (25th nationally).
LSU should be more focused after the Stephen F. Austin loss and pull away for the victory.
Prediction: LSU 78, Sam Houston State 63
Oral Roberts at Arkansas – 8 PM EST, SEC Network+
While the Hogs aren’t ranked in the AP poll, I had them at No. 22 in my Top 25 this week.
Some may look around and wonder why a team that lost at Houston by 26 points is ranked that high, but Arkansas’s overall body of work has been pretty good when you consider the wins over Oklahoma and Minnesota.
This game shouldn’t be close, but Oral Roberts is coming off a sneaky good road win at Florida Gulf Coast (by 19 points).
Still, Arkansas should be able to push the tempo and force the Golden Eagles into a lot of mistakes.
Prediction: Arkansas 92, Oral Roberts 70
Auburn at Murray State – 8 PM EST, OVC Digital Network
Here’s a game where we find out just how much Auburn has improved on the defensive end of the floor.
The Racers are averaging 88.5 points per game at home this season and boast two elite scorers in Jonathan Stark and Terrell Miller Jr., plus two more double-digit scorers in Shaq Buchanan and Ja Morant.
Three of those four players shoot 39 percent or better from 3-point land, so Bruce Pearl’s team had better be ready to defend on the perimeter.
The win over MTSU this past weekend reinforced the trust that I have in the Tigers, and I trust them more than most people do right now (since many thought they’d suffer from the after effects of the FBI investigation) and consider them an NCAA Tournament team.
But man is this a tough spot. Stark’s ability to go off at any time combined with Miller’s versatility makes Murray State a dangerous team at home, even with the Tigers playing so well.
And while I feel good about Auburn’s ability to continue to rebound at a high level and affect shots with their length, my gut is telling me to go with the upset.
Prediction: Murray State 82, Auburn 80
Georgia Tech at Georgia – 9 PM EST, ESPN2
It’s becoming more and more challenging to trust this Georgia, as although UMass has been good at home this season, there’s no reason to lose that game and trail by as many as 22 points.
Now the Bulldogs will turn their attention to a Georgia Tech team that has Josh Okogie back in the lineup, with the sophomore scoring 19 points in his season debut against Florida A&M.
I have no idea which team to rely on in this situation, and again, that forces me to revert to going with the home team.
Points may be hard to come by here since both teams play at a slow pace.
Prediction: Georgia 65, Georgia Tech 62
Stephen F. Austin at Missouri – 9 PM EST, ESPNU
The Lumberjacks are flying high after the win over LSU, but this seems like a more difficult matchup.
Missouri’s size advantage continues to be a major asset, and Jontay Porter has been excellent as of late.
Kyle Keller’s squad will try to speed the game up a bit and put a lot of pressure on Mizzou’s guards, which is the recipe for success in this type of game.
However, I’ll lean towards the Tigers, as they’ve built a lot of momentum over the past several weeks and are playing with a ton of confidence.
Prediction: Missouri 79, Stephen F. Austin 69
Alabama vs. Mercer – 9 PM EST, SEC Network (Game Preview)
Mercer is one of the most experienced teams in the country, and it’ll need to use that experience to slow down Collin Sexton and the Crimson Tide.
While the Bears sometimes have issues on defense, they’ve shown the ability to score in bunches, especially from beyond the arc. Mercer is fifth in the nation in shooting 44.0 percent from 3-point range, and that’ll need to be present to have a chance to win this game.
Of course, the most noteworthy factor in this one will be the return of Braxton Key, who was Alabama’s most versatile player a season ago. Adding him to the mix makes this team even more dangerous, and he’ll also help out significant on defense and in rebounding.
Sexton vs. Ria’n Holland will be a fun matchup, but I think the return of Key and the impact of Donta Hall will be too much for the Bears to overcome down the stretch.
Prediction: Alabama 81, Mercer 72
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