Lovell’s 2017-18 SEC Basketball Preseason Power Rankings

By
Blake Lovell
-

Note: Here are the SEC basketball preseason media picks for those that want to compare my rankings to their rankings.

I almost skipped my SEC basketball preseason power rankings this year.

And it had nothing to do with laziness or being uneducated on all 14 teams. I’ve spent many months now dissecting the players and teams, so I feel confident in my knowledge of the league.

But here’s what I’m not confident about:

Where these 14 teams will actually finish.

Yes, all 14. I am not 100 percent certain on where anyone will finish due to the depth of talent in the conference.

Most years, it’s been easy to pinpoint the league’s top five and bottom four teams. The middle is usually difficult to predict, but we’ve at least felt pretty good about the top tier and bottom tier.

Enter the 2017-18 season, where that predictability is no longer present. Instead, we’re left with a conference where nearly every team expects to be in the NCAA Tournament conversation come March.

Being ranked seventh in recent years meant you were average. Being ranked seventh this year means you are just outside the Top 25. And because of how little difference there is between most of the teams ranked in the bottom half, it’s impossible to know how the standings will shake out.

That reality almost caused the obliteration of my preseason power rankings.

However, I decided to push on and do my best at figuring out an order for all these teams. I’ve changed this order about 837 times since I began the process a few months ago, so that should tell you all you need to know about my confidence level.

Never before has there been a year where I lack confidence in every single spot. That is, until now.

And as always, preseason power rankings mean nothing. They are fun to do, but nothing more than an educated guess on what could happen.

Let us begin.

Note: In parentheses is the team’s ranking in my Preseason Top 25.

1. Kentucky (National Ranking: #7)

Overview: I spent many hours trying to convince myself that the Wildcats shouldn’t be my No. 1. It was like convincing yourself that you shouldn’t go back to the girlfriend that you’ve always been with. You keep trying to pull away, but even despite her flaws, she has almost everything that you’re looking for. Yes, Kentucky is the ex-girlfriend that always draws you back in. This is John Calipari‘s most inexperienced team yet, and I could see the Wildcats experiencing more ups and downs than usual during the non-conference slate due to that youth. But man are they talented. We know about the ridiculously talented freshmen group that features Hamidou Diallo, Kevin Knox, P.J. Washington, Jarred Vanderbilt and others. However, it’s returners like Wenyen Gabriel and Sacha Killeya-Jones that gives Kentucky the depth needed to finish at or near the top of the SEC yet again.

Why They Could Finish Lower: Because the SEC has as many as four or five legitimate regular season title contenders. I wouldn’t be all that shocked if Kentucky finished third or even fourth. I just don’t think there’s a huge difference between the No. 1 team and No. 4 team. I’d be more shocked if Calipari’s squad went on a tear and finished with two or less conference losses. A few other concerns are outside shooting and being an inconsistent road team due to that inexperience.

Team MVP: Kevin Knox. This is always a toss-up for Kentucky given the enormous amount of talent, but let’s go with Knox. I like his versatility and think he’ll be able to use that to put up good numbers on both ends of the floor.

Don’t Sleep On: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The 6-6 combo guard wowed everyone with his impressive numbers at Kentucky’s pro day, and his size and length (his wingspan was measured at 7’0) will allow him to play several spots on Calipari’s “positionless” team.

2. Florida (National Ranking: #8)

Overview: For the past month, I’ve had the Gators at No. 1. Then I changed my mind and went back to the ex-girlfriend (because deep down, I know that she still loves me). However, I legitimately think Kentucky is 1A and Florida is 1B. The Gators have a SEC Player of the Year candidate in KeVaughn Allen, the reigning SEC Coach of the Year in Mike White, and one of the most undervalued point guards in the country in Chris Chiozza. But wait, there’s more. Kevarrius Hayes is set for a breakout season in the frontcourt, while transfers Egor Koulechov and Jalen Hudson will make an immediate impact. What I like most about this Florida team is the versatility and depth, with the Gators likely being one of the nation’s top defensive teams. Another positive? John Egbunu and Isaiah Stokes should both be back in January to help White’s team pack even more of a punch.

Why They Could Finish Higher: White is absolutely the real deal and still might not get enough credit for the job he’s done after following in the footsteps of Billy Donovan. You know, that guy that won back-to-back national titles. I’ll also add this: While I have Kentucky at No. 1, Florida feels like the team that can make the deepest run in the NCAA Tournament due to the experience and overall depth. This can absolutely be a Final Four team.

Why They Could Finish Lower: There are unknowns in terms of replacing the versatility of Devon Robinson, the defensive abilities of Kasey Hill, and the underhand free throw shooting of Canyon Barry (I’m kidding, he added much more than that). Also, Hayes will need help in the frontcourt while Egbunu is sidelined, which means players like Keith Stone, Gorjok Gak, and Top 100 freshman Chase Johnson will all need to contribute.

Team MVP: KeVaughn Allen. His ability to score points in such a fast way makes him one of the most dangerous players on the court night in and night out. If you asked me today, he’s a top three SEC Player of the Year candidate.

Don’t Sleep On: Deaundrae Ballard. The 6-5 freshman guard has already been drawing high praise this offseason for his work ethic and scoring ability.

3. Alabama (National Ranking: #16)

Overview: I had the Crimson Tide as high as second throughout the rankings process, but ultimately slotted them here. Third isn’t a bad place to be in a conference that could get seven or eight teams in the NCAA Tournament (even if I consider the Tide essentially even with the No. 4 team). Alabama is in my Top 20 heading into the season, thanks in large part to the arrival of Collin Sexton and John Petty. Both freshman will thrive in the Tide’s up-tempo offense and help ease last year’s scoring issues. But what will help just as much will be the development of returners like Braxton Key, Dazon Ingram, and Donta Hall, who all figure to take a step forward on both ends of the floor.

Why They Could Finish Higher: I spent the entire first paragraph talking about Alabama’s offense, but the staple of an Avery Johnson-coached team will always be defense. The good news? The Tide could be even more efficient on the side of the court. In ’16-17, Johnson’s squad finished 28th in the country in scoring defense (64.7 ppg) and 31st in rebounding margin (+5.6). The program’s added depth (don’t forget about freshmen Alex Reese and Herb Jones) should help provide just as good or better numbers this season.

Why They Could Finish Lower: The only way I see Alabama finishing lower is if opposing teams figure out how to keep Sexton out of the paint and cause the Tide to rely too much on the jumpshot. While there are solid shooters on the roster, this is a team that should use its aggressiveness and athleticism to attack the rim at will.

Team MVP: Collin Sexton. I could have just as easily picked Key or Ingram and felt fine about my choice. But considering how much Sexton will change the landscape of how Alabama plays offense, he gets the nod.

Don’t Sleep On: Daniel Giddens. The Ohio State transfer is an outstanding athlete with the size needed to command the paint.

4. Texas A&M (National Ranking: #17)

Overview: It’s not a stretch to say that the Aggies have the best starting five in the SEC. Both Robert Williams and Tyler Davis are All-SEC First Team candidates, Admon Gilder is one of the best true scorers in the conference, D.J. Hogg is fully healthy, and J.J. Caldwell is a playmaking point guard that can pass and score. What’s not to like? Texas A&M also adds depth at point guard with Marquette transfer Duane Wilson. And don’t forget about the highly undervalued Tonny Trocha-Morelos, who might be the best sixth man in the league.

Why They Could Finish Higher: Playmakers will be needed to finish at the top of the SEC standings this season. A&M has several of them. The biggest weakness last season was not having a point guard, and now the Aggies have a few guys that can offer big minutes. It wouldn’t be all that surprising if Billy Kennedy‘s squad won the league outright.

Why They Could Finish Lower: What if those point guard concerns are still present? Caldwell has all the talent in the world, but he has a lot of pressure on him to produce right away after sitting out all of last season. Kennedy talked about the need to be patient with him, so we’ll likely see typical freshman inconsistencies at times. That could lead to the Aggies turning to Wilson or the freshman duo of Jay Jay Chandler and T.J. Starks.

Team MVP: Robert Williams. He’s a Top 5 draft pick next year, and didn’t come close to reaching his potential last season. Plus, he should average a double-double and win SEC Defensive Player of the Year for the second straight season.

Don’t Sleep On: Tonny Trocha-Morelos. Has the same 6-10 size as Williams and Davis and could be the unsung hero on this SEC title contender.

5. Missouri (National Ranking: #24)

Overview: No team in the country has changed its fortunes as much as Missouri. The Tigers went from being one of the worst teams in the league to having the pieces necessary to compete for a top five spot. Michael Porter Jr. is as good as advertised, as is his 6-10 brother Jontay Porter. Another positive that is three double-digit scorers return from a season ago – Jordan Barnett (12.2 ppg), Kevin Puryear (11.8 ppg), and Terrence Phillips (10.4 ppg). To add to that group, there is the solid freshman combo of point guard Blake Harris and big man Jeremiah Tilmon, as well as Canisius transfer Kassius Robertson.

Why They Could Finish Higher: Missouri has five players on the roster listed at 6-10. Considering that three of those guys will play significant minutes, that’s a lot of size on what should be a good defensive team. But the biggest reason this team could finish higher is Porter Jr. He is a legitimate national Player of the Year candidate, and when you have a playmaker of his caliber leading the way, you’re going to have a chance to win every single time you take the floor.

Why They Could Finish Lower: Perhaps it’s a bit unfair to use the stat of Missouri being ranked 337th nationally in field-goal percentage (39.3 percent) last season as the reasoning for finishing lower, but that number certainly has to improve. So, let’s go with what’ll be the biggest elephant in the room for most people: Cuonzo Martin‘s track record. Despite two NCAA Tournament appearances in his last four seasons (including a Sweet 16 berth at Tennessee), there are still some who wonder if he can make the necessary decisions to put the Tigers in position for an SEC title.

Team MVP: Michael Porter Jr. No further explanation needed.

Don’t Sleep On: Kassius Robertson. Remember that whole thing about Missouri’s shooting woes? Well, Robertson made 98 3-pointers and shot 41 percent from downtown last season.

6. Auburn

Overview: After spending the entire offseason at No. 5, the Tigers wind up at No. 6. That’s still a good place to be, and I continue to be of the opinion that Auburn is an NCAA Tournament team (which I echoed in this year’s Athlon Sports preseason magazine). I realize that the recent FBI investigation into assistant coach Chuck Person will cause people to doubt this team, but what we have to go on is what we know now. And what we know now is that Auburn’s roster is extremely talented. Bruce Pearl‘s top four scorers are back for their sophomore seasons, and the addition of players like Desean Murray, Malik Dunbar, Chuma Okeke, and Davion Mitchell will do wonders for this team’s depth.

Why They Could Finish Higher: If you simply look at each team’s full roster, Auburn may be top three in terms of pure offensive talent. Scoring will not be a problem for a team that finished 32nd in the nation in that category (80.4 ppg). And worth considering: Mustapha Heron and Danjel Purifoy will both move back to their natural positions after having to play out of position due to injuries last year. Of course, there’s also the fact that Austin Wiley could be one of the most improved players in the country.

Why They Could Finish Lower: You know where I’m going with this one – the Tigers were atrocious on the defensive end of the floor last season. They were 13th in the SEC and 321st nationally in giving up 79.6 points per game, and that cannot happen again if this team finish in the top half. Pearl has mentioned this offseason about experimenting with more zone defense, so perhaps that will reduce some of the problems.

Team MVP: Mustapha Heron. The 6-5 sophomore was the rock of this team last year, and I expect that to stay the same this time around.

Don’t Sleep On: Desean Murray. It’s the versatility of Murray that will give him an opportunity to play a lot of minutes. He will also add another scoring punch to the roster after averaging 20.2 points per game in his final season at Presbyterian.

7. Arkansas

Overview: And now we begin the stretch of the seven teams that are the hardest to place. We start with the Razorbacks, who feature one of the best combos in the nation in Daryl Macon and Jaylen Barford. That will give Arkansas two proven scoring options to go to in close games, and that’s a good luxury to have in a competitive conference that’ll feature a lot of close games. Elsewhere, Mike Anderson has four other seniors that figure to play significant roles – Trey Thompson, Dustin Thomas, Anton Beard, Arlando Cook. Sophomore Adrio Bailey will also add quality minutes. To add to the versatility, Anderson should be able to turn to freshmen Khalil Garland, Darious Hall, and Daniel Gafford for important minutes.

Why They Could Finish Higher: Macon and Barford are really, really good. They give the Hogs an edge that’ll be needed to finish above .500 in this deep conference, and you know both will have a chip on their shoulder after coming so close to beating eventual national champion North Carolina in the NCAA Tournament. We also have to consider the experience and leadership factors of a team that features six seniors, plus the tenacious defensive style that Arkansas will play on a nightly basis.

Why They Could Finish Lower: Moses Kingsley and Dusty Hannahs were not role players – they were major pieces of the puzzle for several seasons. Yet, it feels like their departures are being pushed aside as though they played 10 minutes per game. Both added a different dynamic to the overall success of the program, and replacing Kingsley’s production inside could prove especially difficult.

Team MVP: Daryl Macon/Jaylen Barford. Take your pick. Both will be fantastic.

Don’t Sleep On: Anton Beard. Should see a lot more minutes this season and help get the ball where it needs to go on offense.

8. Vanderbilt

Overview: Here’s another team that’ll be in the mix for an NCAA Tournament bid. The Commodores return a great senior trio in Riley LaChance, Matthew Fisher-Davis, and Jeff Roberson. Those three will be aided by the return of swingman Joe Toye and a talented backcourt group of newcomers in Xavier transfer Larry Austin and freshman guards Saben Lee and Maxwell Evans.

Why They Could Finish Higher: While Vanderbilt’s record was nothing special last year, it managed to get to the NCAA Tournament after being 8-10 in mid-January. How did the turnaround happen? Bryce Drew did what good coaches do: He made necessary adjustments. Those adjustments included moving to an offensive scheme that was more familiar for the players, and that led to a memorable run late in the season. Combine that with the fact that Drew is in the mix for two Top 10 prospects in the 2018 recruiting class, and it’s clear that the school made a tremendous hire last offseason.

Why They Could Finish Lower: It was a chore for opposing coaches to gameplan against Luke Kornet. With that 7-foot problem out of the way, does it become easier to zone in on stopping the perimeter shooting of LaChance, Fisher-Davis, and Roberson? That’s a fair question. Another fair question involves the Commodores’ production in the frontcourt. If the trio of Djery Baptiste, Clevon Brown, and Ejike Obinna don’t progress quickly enough, the team’s paint defense and rebounding will suffer.

Team MVP: Matthew Fisher-Davis. It’s easy to root for Fisher-Davis heading into this season after the ups and downs of a year ago. But as I’ve said many times, when he’s at his best, he can be one of the best that the SEC has to offer. If he can add another gear on defense, he’ll have a great senior season in Nashville.

Don’t Sleep On: Clevon Brown. The 6-8 sophomore is the breakout candidate in the frontcourt, and the hope is his added strength in the weight room this offseason will help him become a reliable defender and rebounding option.

9. Ole Miss

Overview: Yet another team that’s seen a lot of movement in my rankings throughout the summer. I once had the Rebels as high as No. 6, and we’ll discuss shortly why this was where they landed. Andy Kennedy is back for his 937th season in Oxford, and guess what? The man just keeps on winning. He’s had 10 seasons of 20 or more wins, and Ole Miss hasn’t finished lower than sixth since the league scrapped divisions in 2011. This time around, Kennedy will have the services of one of the deepest backcourts in the country. Not only are Deandre Burnett, Terence Davis, and Breein Tyree still there, but they’re joined by Memphis transfer Markel Crawford and talented freshman Devontae Shuler. Inside, the Rebels will have to replace the production of double-double machine Sebastian Saiz.

Why They Could Finish Higher: Look no further than all the guards I mentioned above. I’d put the Rebels’ backcourt up against any in the SEC and many around the country. They have the potential to be that good, as long as they all commit on the defensive end of the floor.

Why They Could Finish Lower: It goes back to the walking double-double that was Saiz. There’s a big gap to fill there, and 7-foot Drake transfer Dominik Olejniczak will need to play significant minutes alongside the returning Justas Furmanavicius and JUCO transfer Bruce Stevens. Defensive consistency is also a concern after finishing 272nd in the country in scoring defense (76.3 ppg).

Team MVP: Terence Davis. An improved 3-point shot should allow Davis to become the team’s primary scorer.

Don’t Sleep On: Bruce Stevens. Kennedy thinks he can be a major factor due to the multiple ways that he can score and defend.

10. Mississippi State

Overview: I’ve had the Bulldogs at between No. 7 and No. 12 throughout the summer and decided to slot them here. Ben Howland has lots of talent in Starkville this season as Quinndary Weatherspoon once again leads the way. But beyond that, there are more intriguing pieces in the backcourt with Lamar Peters, Xavian Stapleton, Tyson Carter, Eli Wright, and Nick Weatherspoon all in the fold. Inside, Aric Holman and Schnider Herard will offer excellent interior defense, and newcomer Abdul Ado has the energy to play a big role.

Why They Could Finish Higher: When looking back at last season, a few things stand out. For starters, this was the least experienced team in the country. But despite that inexperience, Howland’s group was extremely competitive. Mississippi State lost eight games by seven points or less, with seven of those being conference games. With the added year of experience and the emergence of newcomers like the younger Weatherspoon and Ado, the Bulldogs could find a way to win those close games this season.

Why They Could Finish Lower: However, there’s a problem when using the above stat. Yes, Mississippi State will be better, but so will many teams in the SEC. It will be harder to win those close games because the entire league schedule will be more difficult than it was a year ago. And it would be naïve to think that Mario Kegler’s exit can simply be pushed aside as an afterthought. He was a very important player last season.

Team MVP: Quinndary Weatherspoon. A first team All-SEC caliber player that could put up 30 points on any given night.

Don’t Sleep On: Schnider Herard. If he learns from the ups and downs of last season, he has all the physical tools to be a monster inside.

11. Georgia

Overview: The Bulldogs are another team that have bounced back and forth this offseason and might have the most variety of picks of anyone in the SEC. Lindy’s ranked them third, Blue Ribbon went with eighth, and Athlon Sports ranked them 10th. I’m obviously the lowest of the group, mainly because I just have trouble getting a read on Mark Fox’s squad. What I have no trouble getting a read on is Yante Maten, who is a favorite to win SEC Player of the Year (as long as Georgia is competitive). The physical Derek Ogbeide is also back, as are four rotation guards in Turtle Jackson, Juwan Parker, Jordan Harris, and Tyree Crump. Fox also adds a stud freshman in Rayshaun Hammonds.

Why They Could Finish Higher: Because Maten is tremendous, and Ogbeide might be one of the more improved players in the league. Add in the versatility of Hammonds and another year of experience for the aforementioned guards, and an NCAA Tournament bid is definitely in reach.

Why They Could Finish Lower: You are going to hear this phrase a lot over the next month or so: “They couldn’t get to the tournament with Frazier and Maten, so how do they get there with only one of them?” Frazier was such a unique player that made life easier on everyone. Without him, the Bulldogs could sputter at times on offense if the guard play isn’t consistent enough.

Team MVP: Yante Maten. He’s an All-American candidate without question.

Don’t Sleep On: Jordan Harris. The 6-4 sophomore will likely be the best shooter on a team that may struggle in that category.

12. Tennessee

Overview: Of all the teams in this 7-12 stretch, Tennessee was the most difficult to place. The Vols had the luxury of being ranked at No. 7 for several months, and while I placed them here, I can see Tennessee having enough in place to make the NCAA Tournament. That’s how close things are between all these teams. What Rick Barnes has going for him is the return of Grant Williams and a host of highly-talented perimeter players. He adds James Daniel into the mix as well, who led the nation in scoring during the 2015-16 season. And don’t forget about the late freshman addition of Yves Pons.

Why They Could Finish Higher: We aren’t that far removed from the Vols being a few wins away from securing a bid in the 2017 NCAA Tournament. Tennessee did lose a major on and off the court contributor in Robert Hubbs III, but this is another team with a variety of options at guard. I used the phrase “quiet toughness” many times last year to describe this team, and that could be the case again this year. They won’t be flashy, but it may be a situation where they just outwork everyone and find themselves in the tournament for the first time since 2014.

Why They Could Finish Lower: Tennessee’s lack of size could cause some problems both defensively and on the boards. There’s also the question of whether the Vols will shoot the ball more efficiently from outside after finishing 282nd in the country in 3-point field goal percentage (32.6 percent).

Team MVP: Grant Williams. The two 30-point games as a freshman showed the heights that he can reach, and his offensive game should expand.

Don’t Sleep On: Admiral Schofield. Another undervalued player that’ll be called upon to do many different things for this team.

13. South Carolina

Overview: Frank Martin is an outstanding coach and deserves a tremendous amount of credit for what he was able to do with this South Carolina team last season. But this ranking isn’t about coaching – it’s about overall depth and chemistry. The Gamecocks lost a lot of both this offseason. Sindarius Thornwell, P.J. Dozier, and Duane Notice left after the Final Four run, and predicted starting point guard Rakym Felder was suspended indefinitely this offseason. That leaves Martin and company without four major contributors from that memorable run (and five of his top seven scorers overall), and the hope is that players like Chris Silva and Maik Kotsar can make big enough strides to make those exits sting a little less. Hassani Gravett (player preview here) should also take a leap forward.

Why They Could Finish Higher: Because why would I be dumb enough to pick against a Martin-coached team for the zillionth straight year? The Gamecocks were picked eighth in the SEC in preseason last year and made it to the Final Four. The year before, they were picked 10th and finished fourth with the most wins in school history. South Carolina fans should be thrilled at them being picked here, because it probably means a national championship is on the way. There’s also that thing called defense, which Martin’s teams play no matter what. I could have picked the Gamecocks seventh and been fine with my choice.

Why They Could Finish Lower: Obviously, lower would mean the worst team in the SEC. And while I have serious concerns about a team lacking depth in a conference full of depth, again, picking a Martin team last is not physically possible. But if it happens, it’ll be because the Gamecocks just couldn’t find enough consistent scoring to keep up.

Team MVP: Chris Silva. The NCAA Tournament experience will help Silva become the man for this team. He scored in double-figures in all five of those games and just has to stay out of foul trouble to be an All-SEC player on a team in need of a constant playmaker.

Don’t Sleep On: Kory Holden. The Delaware transfer is the best overall scorer on the team (17.7 ppg in ’15-16) and will need to make up for all the guard production that this team lost this offseason.

14. LSU

Overview: Picking LSU last was the safe choice, even if I continue to think that Will Wade will have this program turned around quicker than most expect. One could justify ranking the Tigers higher due to talent on offense, but the problem is there may not be enough of that talent on defense just yet. On a positive note, there are intriguing pieces already in place. Duop Reath and Brandon Sampson are back, and the additions of guys like Jeremy Combs, Randy Onwuasor, and freshman Tremont Waters give Wade plenty to work with. I’ll also add this: LSU will be significantly better than it was a year ago, but the overall depth of the league may make it a challenge to move up in the standings.

Why They Could Finish Higher: The main reason is that we already know this team won’t be as bad on defense as they were a year ago. Wade immediately worked on changing the culture as season as he took the job, and implementing that havoc style on defense will go a long way towards completing that transformation. The Tigers have several players with a proven scoring background, so a full commitment on the defensive end of the floor could result in LSU being the surprise of the league.

Team MVP: Duop Reath. It’s hard to know who may benefit from a coaching change, but I just like Reath’s overall game and think Wade will help him develop even further.

Don’t Sleep On: Skylar Mays. Wade seems impressed already by the 6-4 sophomore’s overall work ethic and shooting ability, which could equal a lot of minutes in an up-tempo style.

Here is a special complimentary podcast that explains more of my thought process behind the rankings:

More SEC basketball season preview material: